By John Richardson CHEMICAL company third quarter financial results point to what has been apparent at ground level for some time now – a struggle to achieve volume growth over 2010. My colleague Nigel Davis, who edits in the Insight section of ICIS news, wrote in this article last week: “In the fourth quarter of 2011, […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Tries To Transform Itself
By John Richardson CAN China succeed in transforming its economy from one which is over-reliant on exports to one where domestic consumption is a much bigger driver of growth? And how long will this process take and in the interim, can we expect a few years of lower GDP (gross domestic product) growth? As delegates […]
When I’m 64
Will you still need me? Will you still feed me? The Beatles asked the right questions back in 1967, when singing ‘When I’m Sixty-Four’ on their iconic Sergeant Pepper album. What would happen to the Western BabyBoomers when they became 64? Would they be about to die, as had been the case with previous generations? […]
There Is No Going Back
By John Richardson “IF we build polymer capacity in India the demand will come,” a very senior industry executive told the blog last year. He amplified this statement by explaining that greater availability of plastics would always stimulate strong demand growth for low-end packaging materials etc in emerging markets in general, as the poor became […]
September Will Be A Cruel Month
By John Richardson SEPTEMBER is going to be a cruel month when the West returns from the summer holiday period and the extent of damage to chemicals and polymer demand becomes more apparent. In Asia, temporary supply constraints in polyolefins, paraxylene (PX) and styrene monomer (SM) have disguised the damage. These constraints will at some point ease, leading […]
The New Normal World In 2021
By John Richardson ALL of us would love to be able to see into the future. Chapter 4 of our new eBook, ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal’, does just this. It offers 10 predictions about how the world will look in 2021, which are : 1. Young and old will be focused much more […]
Towards a New Normal, not a new Supercycle
GDP growth figures in Europe and the USA have shown virtually no growth in Q2, whilst China is clearly also slowing fast. It is hard to believe that even today, some analysts are still arguing that a new Supercycle is now underway. The blog remains convinced that we are in transition to a New Normal, […]
The Benzene Versus Propylene Debate
By John Richardson SHELL Chemicals put an argument forward last week that polystyrene (PS) had regained ground from polypropylene (PP) as a result of expensive propylene. And the petrochemicals major forecast a bright future for both PS and expandable polystyrene (EPS). The blog pretty much always enjoys playing the devil’s advocate and so later on […]
Boom, Gloom and the New Normal – Chapter 2 Published Today
Chapter 2 of Boom, Gloom and the New Normal is published today. In a completely new and challenging analysis we argue: • The Western BabyBoomers boosted chemical demand for housing, autos and electronics during their peak consumption years between 1980-2000. But this demand is unlikely to be sustained, now they are entering the 55+ age […]
Chemicals “Spin” Will Continue
By John Richardson THE reluctance of sell-side chemicals analysts to downgrade their forecasts should be severely tested by the Federal Reserve’s decision to downgrade its outlook for the US economy. US GDP growth will now be only 2.7-2.9% in 2011 compared with the April estimate of 3.1% to 3.3%, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke told a […]
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