By John Richardson NOT since at least the beginning of 2014 have Northeast and Southeast Asian polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) margins been as low as they were for the week ending 29 November. We only began our margin assessments in 2014 and so last week’s margins may be lowest for an even longer period. […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Environmental taxes on US polyethylene shipments to the EU seem inevitable
By John Richardson IT ALL seemed to make perfect sense at the time. Feedstock and financing were incredibly cheap and trade barriers kept falling. Although there were some faint and distant public rumblings about plastic rubbish, most of the public and the majority of legislators were not bothered about the issue. The global economy was […]
The global polyethylene paradigm shift of permanently weaker demand
By John Richardson MALCOLM GLADWELL, in his very thought provoking book The Outliers, writes about what we think is gut instinct, but is instead the result of a minimum of 10,000 hours of doing something: Sub-conscious expertise that tells us how to think and react in most situations because we’ve been here before. So, when […]
China’s polyethylene indigestion persists as margins point to major downturn
By John Richardson CHINA’S POLYETHYLENE (PE) market continues to display signs of chronic indigestion. Significant overstocking persists with Northeast Asian integrated naphtha-based PE margins pointing to the weak start of the market with conditions are set to deteriorate. The core of the problem is that Chinese growth isn’t going to be anywhere near strong enough […]
China PE overstocking rises to more than 1m tonnes as exporters continue to flood the market
By John Richardson CHINA is heading for another good year of PE demand growth with estimates from several players of growth at around of 8%. This is in line with our forecast for 2019 growth of 7.7%. But this is clearly not a market growing at 13%, which is what our estimates of local production […]
European petrochemical markets keeping calm and carrying on in light of Saudi attacks
Here is a guest post from my very good ICIS colleague, Matt Tudball, our head of European Markets, where he considers the impact on European petrochemicals markets of the drone and cruise missile strikes on Saudi Arabia (see the image below which details the damage inflicted). ON FRIDAY, at the ICIS Bishopsgate office in […]
Global PE market to remain long despite Saudi cutbacks caused by drone attack
By John Richardson TRADERS lucky enough to be holding long positions in PE ahead of the 14 September drone attack on Saudi oil and gas facilities want everyone to believe that this has changed everything. They will tell you over and over again, if you’re prepared to listen, that the resulting reduction in ethane supply […]
Risk of stagflation and recession from drone attack on Saudi oil facilities
By John Richardson ANY major change in US government foreign policy always carries major risks because, for the time being at least, the US remains the world’s No1 economic and geopolitical Superpower. This is the point I’ve been making since January 2017, when it first became evident that Donald Trump’s election rhetoric on confronting China […]
Drone attack on Saudi oil facilities: Substantial investment required to avoid a repeat
The views expressed below are personal and do not express the views of ICIS Here is a another blog post by our guest blogger, Chris Parry (CBE). Chris, a former Rear Admiral in the British Royal Navy, is now a strategic forecaster and risk expert. He is the founding chair of the UK’s Marine Management […]
As trade talks resume make sure your expectations are very low
By John Richardson DON’T BUILD your mind up over this week’s US/China trade talk as major breakthroughs seem very unlikely. One reason is that we have in effect entered the next presidential election season even though the primaries don’t begin until early next year. President Trump has nothing to gain and everything to lose on […]
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