By John Richardson POLYETHYLENE (PE) industry planners need to factor in the following as they prepare for 2012: 1.) Oil prices are causing demand destruction in the global economy. They could go higher due to the Iranian nuclear crisis. In real dollar terms, as fellow blogger Paul Hodges has written, crude prices were the highest […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Difficult Year For Naphth-based PE
By John Richardson THE first quarter of the 2012, and very probably the rest of the year, look likely to be very difficult for Asia’s naphtha-based polyethylene (PE) producers as a result of more competition from the Middle East in the vital China market. The other big negative factor looks likely to be Chinese demand […]
America’s New Political Era
What follows is likely to be of little interest to those, like ourselves, who are obsessed by the week-by-week price of polyethylene (PE). But a strong US economy is essential for a healthy global chemicals industry, and what is being attempted right now to revive America doesn’t appear to be working. Happy New Year to […]
Placing Faith In Politicians
By John Richardson THE public mood of last week’s Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association (GPCA) conference in Dubai was resolutely optimistic. But in the corridors, the dining rooms and the coffee bars of the conference hotel, the mood was radically different. Taking, as usual, the polyethylene (PE) business as a reasonable proxy for the polymers […]
Relief Rallies Will Not Be Sustained
By John Richardson FURTHER relief rallies in petrochemical markets that occur over the next few weeks and months will not change the overall direction. Buyers will inevitably run short of stocks down all the value chains and we thus will see some more brief flurries of price rises. Another driver of inventory rebuilding will be recoveries […]
Middle East Still Confident For Now
By John Richardson Confidence among Middle Eastern petrochemical producers remains high because they obviously now that as long as oil prices do not collapse they will continue to make excellent money, said a chemicals analyst. The blog believes that there is a very strong chance that crude will collapse to as little as $25 a […]
Demand Weakness Dominates
By John Richardson A CAREFUL reading of all the major ICIS pricing reports covering olefins, polyolefins, aromatics and their derivatives over the last few weeks reveals very few mentions of the phrase “peak demand season”. This time last year, the reports were full of references to the seasonal surge in production of finished goods in […]
September Will Be A Cruel Month
By John Richardson SEPTEMBER is going to be a cruel month when the West returns from the summer holiday period and the extent of damage to chemicals and polymer demand becomes more apparent. In Asia, temporary supply constraints in polyolefins, paraxylene (PX) and styrene monomer (SM) have disguised the damage. These constraints will at some point ease, leading […]
China And Bouncing Dead Cats
By John Richardson Fifty per cent of the blog (John Richardson) is on leave for the next two weeks. Next week Paul Hodges will be posting on Asian Chemical Connections. Paul runs the ICIS Chemicals & Economy blog.Then from the week starting 22 August my fellow ACC blogger, Malini Hariharan, returns from her leave and […]
Place Your Bets – Who Is Right?
By John Richardson DOW Chemical CEO Andrew Liveris said in a 27 July conference call that China’s industrial economy was still doing very well. “They’re managing themselves down very nicely,” he added, pointing to official GDP growth numbers of 8-9%, which translate into chemicals and plastics growth of 12-13%. “We’re not seeing any issue here […]
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