Goldman Sachs is talking about crude oil at $85 a barrel by the end of the year. Sound familiar? Not quite forecasts of $200 a barrel, but is there a danger of repeating the mistake that the James A Baker III Institute on Public Policy claims was made in 2008? In a new report, the […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Excessive Confidence A Risk
Confidence along all the chemicals value chains is always a key issue because of the ability to aggressively manage inventories, according to the London-based chemicals analyst Paul Satchell. So there’s the ever-present risk of sudden and very disruptive de-stocking. The longer the current rallies in commodity prices and stock markets continue, the greater might be […]
China’s commodity stockpile gamble
Source of Picture: Australiannews.com In this article in the South China Morning Post (you can register for free for 14 days if you are not already a subscriber) Michael Pettis makes the argument that China is taking a big risk by stockpiling commodites such as iron ore, copper and oil. Inventory building is on the […]
Chemicals company H2 complacency?
Chemical companies as a whole displayed “dangerously complacent” views about second-half 2009 prospects when they released their Q2 results late last week, argues chemicals analyst Paul Satchell in his blog. “They believe that demand has bottomed. Although they can’t see the upturn yet they believe the worst is definitely behind us,” writes Satchell. “This blog […]
Futures, Recycling Behind China PE Mystery?
Picture: The China Daily “I’ve given up trying to read the polyolefin market in China. I just can’t figure out what’s going on,” said a senior source with a major North American producer late last week. “I keep returning to the fundamentals and cannot understand why prices have risen so steeply since mid-February.” Him and […]
China petchem imports soar on false confidence
They always say the best form of flattery is immitation and so thanks to my colleague Paul Hodges for this graph indicating a huge surge in China’s polyethylene imports – courtesy of data from Edwin Pang of Credit Suisse. I agree with Paul in the latest post on his blog, Chemicals & The Economy, that […]
Artificial price support about to disappear
Source of picture: gilesbowkett.blogspot.com The excellent daily energy and shipping report, The Schork Report said today that the bottom had “fallen out of the entire (energy) complex.” With the Bulls on the defensive, the authors believe that crude could retreat towards $60/bbl. Natural gas markets are so oversupplied that prices in the region of $2/mBTU […]
An Affair To Remember
Source:Amazon.com I remain perplexed by the direction of chemicals, oil and commodity markets over the last few months – and now I understand the reason why. It’s not about feedstock, it’s not about inventory levels or what end-use demand is really like, it’s all to do with affairs of the heart. Thanks again to my […]
Be very careful what you wish for…
Source of picture: The Nymex To continue the same theme of earlier this week, I agree with my fellow blogger Paul Hodges when he warns that OPEC’s price target for $75-80/bbl could nip the nascent economic recovery in the bud. As he quite rightly argues, inventory building ahead of further crude rises in 2007-08 occurred […]
The danger of bogus science
climate change, IPCC, New Scientist, Peak Oil, oil-supply crisis, oil prices, oceanic oscillations
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