By John Richardson DON’T SAY I did not warn you. The post-coronavirus recovery in China is already losing steam in April after a rebound in activity in March, according to this Bloomberg article. Domestic consumer sentiment is weak and export orders have collapsed as a result of the global pandemic, according to the wire service, […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Post-coronavirus world: How China could end up in a stronger position
These are, always, my views only and not the views of ICIS Here is another of attempt at long-term crystal-ball gazing where I again try to imagine the petrochemicals landscape in the post-coronavirus 2025 world. My earlier post had looked at the rise of sustainability and affordability that could work in parallel with the emergence […]
Ways of dealing with COVID-19 don’t have to be rocket science
By John Richardson IT IS all about getting through the next 12 months with minimal damage whilst preparing for what the New Normal will look like when the COVID-19 crisis is over. I believe that changes in the nature of demand will be accelerated by the virus. These changes were already well underway before this […]
China PP imports: Two scenarios showing downside risks for 2020
John Richardson SOMETIMES you can forget what you already know. This was the case in March when I was speculating that Chinese petrochemicals and polymers production might be lower than we had anticipated before COVID-19. Not so according to a very good colleague in China and some of my industry contacts. They have pointed out […]
Global PP demand in 2020 faces two potential major downsides
By John Richardson THE GOOD news might be that some 30% of global PP demand is into packaging applications, and, as we all know, single-use packaging demand has seen a major consumption boom as a result of panic buying in supermarkets. But the bad news is that nobody has come up with an explanation […]
Why the long term price of oil could be lower than many people expect
By John Richardson I HAVE LONG been intrigued by the theory in quantum physics that electrons behave differently when they are observed as opposed to when they are not being observed. Data is quite similar in that it can be made to behave differently through conscious or unconscious confirmation bias. Two people can look at […]
China economy faces huge headwinds with negative full-year growth an inevitability
By John Richardson FRIDAY 17 April is the day when we will get the official Chinese GDP figure for Q1. If it is better than had been anticipated by analysts, the number will have a positive effect on financial markets. But be warned that this doesn’t necessarily mean that in the real, physical world of […]
Modest rebound in oil prices on output cut reflects unprecedented scale of demand loss
By John Richardson DON’T SAY I didn’t warn you. It has been clear since early April that no amount of production cutbacks could reverse the weakness in oil markets. And sure enough, despite the 10m barrel a day OPEC+ reduction in output agreed over the weekend – the biggest cutback in the history of the […]
After COVID-19: How US petrochemicals could become the laggard
The big oil, gas and petrochemicals companies have already started planning for how the world will look after we have conquered the virus. What follows is therefore one scenario for how the petrochemicals world might look. I hope it helps to stimulate and challenge your thinking. These are my personal views only and not the […]
Focus of petchems business must be on meeting medical and food needs
By John Richardson SEVERAL contacts have said to me over the last two weeks that increased medical and food security demand for petrochemicals is a distraction from coming to terms with the huge collapse in demand for all of our products that go into the durable goods which people are no longer buying. I agree […]
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