THIS blog was once criticised for devoting too much time to the big picture – e.g. politics, economics and demographics – one of the major themes of our free e-book, Boom, Gloom & The New Normal. We beg to differ. While studying chemical-plant operating rates, new capacities, feedstock advantages and logistics etc are, of course, […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Leadership Challenges
Xi Jinping, China’s likely new president KeystoneUSA-ZUMA/Rex Features By John Richardson The make-up of China’s new politburo will be announced during the 18th Party Congress, which starts on 8 November. But don’t expect confirmation of the new leadership team to do anything to address doubts over the country’s long-term economic direction. China will remain in what political and economic […]
Foxconn And China Demographics
Source: http://www.engadget.com/2012/09/23/foxconn-taiyuan-riot/ By John Richardson THE riots and a strike at Foxconn factories in China point to demographic changes that have major implications for the country’s economy. China’s one-child policy means that it can no longer depend on a constant flow of compliant workers from the countryside prepared to accept exhausting and monotonous working […]
No More Of This…
By John Richardson THE big hope is that once China returns from its National Holidays (1-7 October), petrochemicals markets will enjoy a big and sustainable recovery. It is not going to happen. Throughout this year, the hope has been that the recovery is just around the corner. People have argued that deteriorating economic data has been […]
BBC News Warns On China’s Demographic Crisis
A major new report from BBC News suggests that “China’s economic model is in danger” due to its rapidly ageing population. It reaches exactly the same conclusions as in our Boom, Gloom and the New Normal ebook. Chapter 6, published in November 2011 was titled ‘The Risks to China and India Growth’. Now, what was […]
China And Demographics
OUR last four blog posts have focused on some of the big challenges confronting China’s economy over the next 12-18 months. Today we again switch our focus to how major changes in demographics could adversely impact longer-term growth prospects. By John Richardson CONTINUING high rates of urbanisation are constantly cited by chemical industry executives […]
The Water Challenge
Source of picture: BBC By John Richardson By 2050, the world’s 10 biggest river basins by population are expected to produce a quarter of global GDP, according to a report commissioned by HSBC, which was released in June. The figure is greater than the combined future economies of the US, Japan and Germany – and […]
Dictating Chemicals Demand
By John Richardson SOME commodity chemicals companies still assume that, if they build new supply, demand will always eventually catch up with supply. The risks of not building new capacities, at times of easy financing and feedstock availability, are also viewed as too great. These include deteriorating economies of scale and loss of […]
China’s Luxury Goods Risk
By John Richardson THE “luxury end” of China’s polyethylene (PE) market is being heavily targeted by overseas producers and the results so far have been pretty spectacular, according to one of the producers. “The annual growth in demand for higher value grades has been tremendous – two times GDP,” said a senior executive with […]
China’s Labour Complications
Source: Wang Feng, director of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy in Beijing, from an article published in the China Economic Quarterly. By John Richardson ONE of the explanations for China’s disappointing petrochemicals demand growth during 2012 is that even where export-focused factories in southern and eastern China can find sufficient orders to run […]
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