By John Richardson DIFFICULT choices lie ahead for exporters of polypropylene (PP), styrene monomer (SM) and paraxylene (PX) to China. From next year onwards, the country’s imports will start to decline and by 2023-2025 complete self-sufficiency may be reached in all these products. Just how significant this shift will be for global markets, we can […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Global polyethylene markets: What’s happened in 2020 and an outlook for next year
By John Richardson HERE is your essential cut-out-and-keep summary of what has happened in global polyethylene (PE) markets in 2020 and your guide to what I believe will happen next year. The first two sections will review demand in the developed world and China and the rest of the developing world. These sections will also […]
Why China’s polyethylene imports could be either 22m tonnes or 3m tonnes in 2030
By John Richardson THERE are so many angles to this that, as with the potential outcomes of the US presidential election, China’s Fifth Plenum is worth many acres of newsprint. The plenum is taking place on 26-29 October, whereas, as everyone bar the odd Martian knows, the US election is on 3 November. The plenum […]
Petrochemicals and autos: the last 50 years provide little guide to the future
By John Richardson IT HAS been an amazingly half a century of innovation for the petrochemicals industry. The light-weighting of automobiles, combined with booming demand for autos, has delivered many billions of dollars of value to companies. The latest figures from the American Chemistry Council, which only cover North America, give a pointer towards the […]
China’s policy dilemma: raising local demand while protecting exports
By John Richardson IN THIS Western-centric world, a huge amount of ink is split over the consequences of US presidential elections and this year’s the poll, which as always takes place in November, is no exception. The result will of course have huge global economic and geopolitical consequences. But I believe that the outcomes […]
China moves closer to Iran as tensions with the US build: Implications for petrochemicals
By John Richardson Opinions and emotions and can shape how we interpret data, but, as we all know, our personal views need to be put on hold and our emotions held in check when the numbers are being crunched. This is of course easier said than done on highly emotive subjects such as the widening […]
China could be in complete polypropylene self-sufficiency by 2022
By John Richardson SORRY to labour the point but this comes from a genuine concern for the readers of this blog, including many of our valued ICIS customers: the above chart, if you have been following the blog over the last six years, should come as no surprise. You may, as a result, already have […]
Why Asia may win and the US lose in post-virus petchems investment world
As always, these are my personal views and don’t reflect the views of ICIS By John Richardson IT IS A polyethylene (PE) world turned upside down which, in my view, will remain upside down. With oil prices set to stay around $30/bbl over the long term, the US ethane advantage is in my opinion pretty […]
Post-coronavirus world: How China could end up in a stronger position
These are, always, my views only and not the views of ICIS Here is another of attempt at long-term crystal-ball gazing where I again try to imagine the petrochemicals landscape in the post-coronavirus 2025 world. My earlier post had looked at the rise of sustainability and affordability that could work in parallel with the emergence […]
Iran and the US: Assessing the risks for petrochemicals and the global economy
As always, these are my personal views only and don’t reflect the views of ICIS By John Richardson AT TIMES like this it’s very hard to be dispassionate. Emotions run high on either side of the widening political gulf as the two factions shout ever-more loudly at each other and refuse to listen. This is […]
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