RECOVERY? WHAT RECOVERY? Some market players are talking about a rebound in the Chinese economy, and, therefore, polyolefins demand, but the critically important spreads data continue to tell a different story. Nothing has changed from last week.
Asian Chemical Connections
New global LLDPE demand scenarios in the context of Ukraine-Russia
How on earth does one respond to the daily news flow? The answer must be headline scenarios – best, – medium and worst-case scenarios
Global polymers and sustainability: how the industry could change over the next decade
By John Richardson MORE THAN 100 countries, including the US, are thought to favour a treaty being proposed at the next UN Environment Assembly in February and March that would set targets for reducing plastic waste in the environment, according to the BBC. I see this as great news, a step forward, as I was […]
China HDPE negative 2021 growth, declining imports underline need for new business model
By John Richardson Following on from my post on Wednesday, please study the quite remarkable chart below, and, if you are not making Common Prosperity the very centrepiece of your strategic planning process, ask yourself, “Why not?”. Then please, please change direction before it’s too late. What you can see are the ICIS estimates for […]
China could become a PP net exporter next year
By John Richardson LET’S PUT THIS in perspective. Yes, as the chart below indicates, China’s polypropylene (PP) demand growth in 2021 is in line to be disappointing relative to what I have long seen as over-bullish expectations. But, unlike in polyethylene (PE), year-on-year PP demand growth will still be positive. Over-bullish expectations are persisting into […]
China 2021 polyethylene demand could be 1.9m tonnes lower than last year
By John Richardson WE NOW HAVE enough data to make some firm conclusions about what the Chinese polyethylene (PE) market will have looked like in 2021. We can also make some early estimates about the shape of the market in 2022. The slide below details what the ICIS apparent demand data for January-October 2021 (our […]
Benzene, the need for a new global Industrial Revolution and the big challenges that lie ahead
By John Richardson THE CHART BELOW shows that 60% of global benzene production in 2021-2040 is forecast to be made via technologies linked to refining units that also make gasoline components. The 60% includes a 33% share for catalytic reformers that make toluene, mixed xylenes (MX) and benzene, referred to collectively as reformate. In the […]
Global polypropylene could also move from inflation to deflation in Q1 next year
By John Richardson WE ALL NEED TO ASK ourselves whether the global patterns in polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) pricing and margins that we have seen over the last year represent a long-term divergence in global markets or something temporary. As discussed on Monday, when I examined linear low-density PE (LLDPE) market (and the same […]
Global polyethylene could move from inflation to deflation by as early as Q1 2022
By John Richardson THE BALTIC DRY INDEX, one of the excellent barometers of overall economic activity, was late last week at its lowest level since June on a slowing Chinese economy, easing congestion at Chinese ports and a fall in Chinese coal imports (more on this in a moment). “The index was around 1,000 a […]
As China coal shortages end, polyolefins margins reach historic lows on oversupply
By John Richardson AGAIN, DON’T say I didn’t tell you. In my 11 October blog post, having talked to people who know what they are talking about, I flagged up the possibility that China’s energy shortages could be fixed a lot quicker than many people were suggesting. Those in the know about China told me […]
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