China’s Q1 2024 exports reach 619,367 tonnes versus 315,904 tonnes in the first quarter of last year.
Asian Chemical Connections
China may see either annual average PP net imports of 4.9m tonnes or net exports of 7.2m tonnes in 2024-2030
Relatively minor changes in PP demand growth and operating rate assumptions have big effects on forecasts for China’s trade flows.
Global PE demand in 2024 could have been 74m tonnes lower if incomes and population drove the market
If population and incomes drove growth, global PE demand could have been just 52m tonne in 2024 versus the ICIS forecast of 126m tonnes. The China market could have been just 10m tonnes versus 43m tonnes; the Developing World ex-China 13m tonnes versus 44m tonnes and the Developed World 29m tonnes versus 38m tonnes.
China’s average annual LLDPE net imports could be just 300,000 tonnes in 2024-2030
CHINA’S net LLDPE imports could average 6.5m tonnes a year of just 300,000 tonnes in 2024-2030
Why China’s HDPE net imports could average just 700,000 tonnes per year in 2024-2030
RIGOROUS scenario planning is essential for China’s net import flows in 2024-2030
Three scenarios for China’s PE demand in 2024-2030 and the effects on global operating rates
UNDER all the scenarios, growth set to decline to the low single digits from 10% in 1992-2023.
Record levels of oversupply and the “Doublespeak” of the old market language
China CFR PE price spreads hit new record low in 2024
Scenarios for China PP trade flows underline the end of the Supercycle and many more new complexities
A MUCH MORE complex world requires better scenario-planning.
China PP price spreads over naphtha hit new low as the long-term shift in markets continues
China block copolymer and raffia-grade price spreads between 2022 and 26 January this year were 144% lower than their long-term average with injection grade spreads 145% lower.
CFR China PE spreads hit a new record low because of all-time high oversupply
So far in 2024, despite supply tighter than it was in December last year, the average per tonne CFR China PE price spread over CFR Japan naphtha costs has fallen to its lowest annual level since we began our price assessments way back in 1993. 2022 and 2023 were the previous record lows.
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