A Famous Ditherer Source of picture: sarafinewordpress.com Chasing higher oil prices and/or a response to the now long-running recovery in Chinese demand that’s become sustainable? Not wanting to sound too much like the start of a famous Shakespeare soliloquy, these are the questions that should be wracking everyone’s brains as they try to figure […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Challenges for chemicals trading in Q4
The views of two Singapore-based chemicals traders explain some of the fundamental shifts in production, logistics and demand since the economic crisis began. “I have done reasonable business this year and made quite good returns, but volumes are way down,” said the first of these two traders, who deals in toluene and mixed xylenes (MX). “Cracker-based […]
All At Stake And At Sea For October
A bit like the fund managers who are anxious to keep the equities rallies going until the end of the year in order to protect bonuses, there must be a lot of petrochemicals people hoping pricing in our sector will stay equally firm. Perhaps, though, these hopes will be more inspired by job preservation rather […]
How do Asian cracker operators compete?
Source of Picture: www.autospies.com Not an easy answer and not one much suited to a few paragraphs of blogging. But here’s one thought as the competitive environment becomes a great deal more difficult due to new Middle East capacity and the potential for China to move towards self-sufficiency in polyethylene and polypropylene: Have a chat […]
The Philippines: Left With the Crumbs
“Here’s your entire allocation for this month” Source of Picture: Adammakwright.wordpress In the words of a plastics converter from the Philippines: “Markets are so tight at the moment that we are left to pick up the crumbs. Suppliers are concentrating almost entirely on China.” The converters have been waiting for so long for the great […]
Excessive Confidence A Risk
Confidence along all the chemicals value chains is always a key issue because of the ability to aggressively manage inventories, according to the London-based chemicals analyst Paul Satchell. So there’s the ever-present risk of sudden and very disruptive de-stocking. The longer the current rallies in commodity prices and stock markets continue, the greater might be […]
China inventory sentiment survey
Peering through the fog On the theme of data again, in the ideal world it might be possible to send thousands of hardworking foot solders out into the field in China to chase down every warehouse of polymers and count every single pallet of polyolefins. Not not really – don’t talk nonsense; in reality, this […]
Credit Expansion Linked To Dalian Boom?
Source of Picture: http://blogs.suntimes.com/ebert/ We have just started doing our research and so more details later – but see attached this Excel spreadsheet – lendingVDalianOI.xls It compares the increase in lending from China’s banks with the amount of open interest in the Dalian Commodity Exchange’s linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) futures contracts. Volume traded on the […]
Another Opinion: China and Recycling
Source of Picture: The Earth Institute at Columbia University I was speaking to a Singapore-based trader this morning over the reasons behind the polyolefin price rally. PPPEPrices2006-Aug09.ppt Here are his views: “A maor factor has been a lack of availability of recycled material. This is because people in the West are buying less durable consumer […]
Asia Polyolefins: “Bloodbath” Postponed
Source of Picture : purchasing.com In his own words, here is how one contact describes the current situation with a couple of extra points added by yours truly (with links) “We’ve seen arbitrage close from Europe on polyolefins with no new business since April-May. Some material was delivered in June but this was merely May […]
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