New China stimulus in 2025 seems unlikely to be able to fully address long-term economic challenges
Asian Chemical Connections
China PP sales turnover collapses by $4.6bn after the end of the Supercycle
LOSSES ACROSS China’s top ten trading partners in PP totalled $4.6bn. The only winner was, not surprisingly, the Russian Federation with a turnover gain of $102m.
China’s Third Plenum later this month: Implications for petchem markets
How will we know if the Third Plenum has returned China to its old growth trajectory? If China CFR HDPE price spreads over CFR Japan naphtha costs rebound by 164%, LDPE spreads increase by 62% and LLDPE spreads rise by 100%.
China’s economic challenges continue to be made clear by PP spreads
Until average PP spreads recover by 149% from where they were up until 9 June, there will have been no return to the great markets we saw during the Supercycle. Meanwhile, too capacity will be chasing too little demand.
How increased global trade tensions could shape China’s PP exports and operating rates
China could either see average annual net imports of 5m tonnes in 2024-2030, net exports of 2m tonnes a year or be in a balanced position. A lot will depend on trade barriers.
Why the rest of the developing world cannot follow in China’s growth footsteps
The developing world outside China cannot repeat China’s economic growth model because of climate change, ageing populations in the West and sustainability
China could be a net exporter of 9m tonnes of PP by 2040
CHINA’S PP net imports could total 5m tonnes in 2040, or the country may instead be in a net export position of 9m tonnes.
China’s PP demand in 2023 heading for a 1% decline on risk of just 2.5% GDP growth
A FALL IN China’s PP imports in April and low operating rates at some China plants suggest 2023 demand growth at minus 1%
China PP import and export complexities require much deeper and wider analysis
China’s PP net exports could be more than 2m tonnes in both 2024 and 2025. This would likely make China the fourth biggest exporter in Asia and the Middle East.
China PP demand could grow by 3% in 2023, down from the 2000-2020 average of 10%
THE EARLY DATA suggest that China’s polypropylene (PP) demand could grow by 3% in 2023. This would be in line with the base case forecast I provided in February.
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