By John Richardson HISTORY has a tendency to move very slowly, inching forward incrementally, and then all of a sudden a flurry of events over an incredibly short space of time can change everything. This is where we are today. Oil prices had been creeping up long before the 4 November launch of the anti-corruption […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Asian Polyethylene Producers: What You Must Do Now $70 Crude Is More Likely
By John Richardson THE facts on the ground in global crude markets have shifted even further in just two days. Now it seems more likely that oil prices will rise to $70 a barrel or above in Q1 of next year, possibly even earlier. What has changed are the ramifications of Saudi Arabia’s anti-corruption campaign. […]
Benefits, Risks Of Petronas/Aramco Deals Serving As Template
By John Richardson THE PETRONAS and Saudi Aramco joint ventures in the RAPID refining-to-petrochemicals project in Malaysia may serve as a template for further “win/win deals”. Whilst these deals will substantially benefit the companies and countries involved, there are broader risks that I’ll discuss at the end of this blog post. Back in February, Aramco […]
Beware Of Oil-Price Rally: Nothing To Do With Fundamentals
By John Richardson PEOPLE are once again at risk of dangerously over-exposing themselves to a further collapse in oil prices following yesterday’s increase to the highest levels since November 2015. The obvious risk is that there will be stock building up and down all the petrochemicals values chains, only for oil to once again decline […]
Oil Prices 80% Likely Not To Return To Previous Levels
By John Richardson In yesterday’s world the ongoing geopolitical tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran would have resulted in a sustained rally in oil prices. But this rally lasted barely couple of days as a result of persistently high US oil stocks and more alarming data emerging from China, such as the biggest-ever decline in […]
Saudi Arabia and Oil: A Lesson For Polypropylene
By John Richardson POLYPROPYLENE (PP) producers and their customers, the plastic converters, are on the cusp of a great opportunity. Let’s start with the producers. The potential for low-priced propylene for several years to come will push PP prices down, thus giving PP the chance to gain market share from other polymers such as polystyrene, […]
Oil Market Muddle Continues Because Of Wrong Focus
CONFUSED? You will remain confused by oil markets as long as you continue to only look at physical supply and demand. Here is my long, but I think essential, historical explanation about why I think this is the root of today’s forecasting problems. And I also make no apologies for going over all ground because […]
Five Misunderstandings About Oil And Maybe A Sixth One
By John Richardson THE first misunderstanding about oil prices, which everyone now accepts was wrong, arose because people took too much notice of existing cost-per-barrel economics and so assumed that from October of last year, the US would close down huge amounts of shale-oil capacity. This didn’t happen because a.) Costs were lower than anticipated […]
Saudi Arabia: It Has Never Been About Beating US Shale Oil
By John Richardson THE CONVENTIONAL view is that Saudi Arabia has launched its market-share campaign in oil markets in order to pretty much get rid of the US shale-oil industry. By so doing, it would secure its long-term economic future through driving global prices back up to the region of $100 a barrel, goes this […]
Pump Oil Hard Now Or Live To Regret Production Cuts
By John Richardson OIL producers face a very straightforward choice: Pump crude as hard as possible right now or run the risk of your most important economic asset being left in the ground for good. One of the reasons is that, regardless of what you might think about the science behind claims that burning fossil […]
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