By John Richardson THE above chart may end up being an underestimate of the extent to which US linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) gains further market share in Europe. But this chart is by itself bad enough. Here’s my logic behind the above chart. thanks to numbers from our our excellent ICIS Supply & Demand Database: […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Don’t Forget Turkey And Its Importance To Global Polyolefins
By John Richardson YOU might well have forgotten the Turkish lira crisis because of the US/China trade war. But Turkey is crucial for the health of the global polyolefins business because of the size of its imports. Before the US fell out with Turkey, resulting in the collapse of the lira, we had expected that […]
Turkey Crisis: Implications For Polyolefins And Global Economy
By John Richardson THE first ramification of the Turkey crisis is that the collapse of the lira raises questions over how Turkish importers will be able to afford the dollars to pay for some of the polyolefins imported since the crisis began. Then comes the issue of what happens to Turkish polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene […]
The Three Essential Oil Price, Economic Growth Scenarios For Petchems
By John Richardson ALL the excitement over the positive impact of US tax cuts should be placed very firmly in this context from an early July Reuters article: US budget analysts generally look at the impact of tax changes over a ten-year period. The tax cuts approved at the end of 2017 were estimated to […]
Petrochemicals Destocking Phase Likely As Crude Volatility Increases
By John Richardson WE COULD now be in a destocking phase in petrochemicals markets as oil prices are falling on a surge in US production. This would obviously mean lower petrochemicals pricing, leaving companies that have overbuilt raw material inventories with substantial financial losses. I hope that most companies have been prudent. In January, the […]
2018 Oil and Petchems: Risk Of Mistaking Apparent For Real Demand
By John Richardson PERHAPS the most important recent single paragraph of analysis, in the huge volume of analysis out there about oil markets, was this from Nick Cunningham in a 24 December article on oilprice.com: The [global crude] inventory surplus [OECD numbers] has dramatically narrowed this year, falling to just a little more than 100 […]
Cheap Oil Raises Naphtha Cracker Over Investment Risk
By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart shows that from January 2015 up until November of this year, the Asian naphtha cracker industry has been making a great deal of money. The orange bars are the premiums in percentage terms between feedstock costs and the prices of one grade of polyethylene (PE) – high-density PE injection […]
Crude Drives Asian Polyethylene Spreads To Three-Year Low As 2018 Risks Build
By John Richardson IN MARCH 2016 we gave three scenarios for crude-oil prices: Collapsing Demand where we saw crude falling to $25/bbl on weak global demand that would make it impossible to repay much of the huge debts that had been built up since 2008. This is the result of economic stimulus polices that we maintain […]
Peak Oil And The Aramco/SABIC Petchems Project
By John Richardson THERE is an important connection between this week’s announcement by Saudi Aramco and SABIC of an MoU for a direct oil-to-chemicals complex and the Tesla Semi electric truck, which is being trialled by DHL and other logistics companies. To fully understand this link, let’s first consider the wider context behind the Tesla truck […]
Measuring Crude Prices And Asian Petchems Profitability
By John Richardson YESTERDAY I posted this slide on LinkedIn, in response to a lot of concern amongst the more than 150 or so delegates at the 5th ICIS Asian Polyolefins Conference in Bangkok about the impact of rising crude prices on profitability. The chart shows spreads between naphtha costs, CFR China injection grade HDPE […]
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