By John Richardson I SAID TO a contact earlier this week that it was remarkable that a senior executive at a petrochemicals company thought few, if any, conventionally built steam crackers would come online after 2030. His response was, “of course, that’s obvious”. But from the perspective of some other industry executives, the future is […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Collapsing battery costs point to ever-declining forecasts for oil demand
By John Richardson THE END of the oil age is arriving. Sooner than many people think, demand for oil in transportation will collapse. And as the environmental benefits of switching to electric vehicles become more and more apparent, we will look back and wonder “Why on earth did we use oil?”, just as we already […]
Global polyethylene markets: What’s happened in 2020 and an outlook for next year
By John Richardson HERE is your essential cut-out-and-keep summary of what has happened in global polyethylene (PE) markets in 2020 and your guide to what I believe will happen next year. The first two sections will review demand in the developed world and China and the rest of the developing world. These sections will also […]
China moves closer to Iran as tensions with the US build: Implications for petrochemicals
By John Richardson Opinions and emotions and can shape how we interpret data, but, as we all know, our personal views need to be put on hold and our emotions held in check when the numbers are being crunched. This is of course easier said than done on highly emotive subjects such as the widening […]
Iran and China new deal could hasten Belt & Road Initiative petrochemicals self-sufficiency
By John Richardson ONCE AGAIN, please don’t say I didn’t tell you. A proposed new investment and security agreement between Iran and China is the kind of closer relationship I had expected back in September 2016 when I wrote: China’s demand for oil is forecast to grow from 6m bbl/day today to 13m bbl/day by […]
Asian polyethylene price recovery faces multiple challenges
By John Richardson THERE are reports of significant cuts in Middle East polyethylene (PE) operating rates because of reduced availability of associated ethane gas feedstock, the result of lower oil output. Combine this with the official Chinese government narrative of a strong recovery in the local economy, along with the emergence of much of the […]
Paraxylene demand collapses as higher China production threatens 6m tonne fall in imports
By John Richardson DON’T SAY I didn’t tell you that a decline in stock markets would happen. The post-March rally in equities was never going to be sustainable because of the enormous size of the damage to the real economy. We may see rebounds, of course, as we did on Friday as extreme volatility is […]
Why the EU could become polyethylene self-sufficient in the post-pandemic world
By John Richardson ONE OF the many unknowns about the post-pandemic world is the extent to which the backlash against plastic rubbish will be revived. I certainly hope it is revived, otherwise, combined with climate change, our future looks pretty grim. How will the public – and thus those legislators who need to be elected […]
Further polyethylene rate cuts seem inevitable with no certainty on who will blink first
By John Richardson IT IS NOT just a razor-like focus on petrochemicals demand that will get you through the crisis. Also essential is an equally close focus on production in a world where all the old assumptions about winners and losers have been turned upside down. But, as with demand, monitoring and forecasting production has […]
Why Asia may win and the US lose in post-virus petchems investment world
As always, these are my personal views and don’t reflect the views of ICIS By John Richardson IT IS A polyethylene (PE) world turned upside down which, in my view, will remain upside down. With oil prices set to stay around $30/bbl over the long term, the US ethane advantage is in my opinion pretty […]
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