…..and that’s assuming there is no trade war with China! By John Richardson THE MORE you dig into the data the more it seems that the US might struggle to find a comfortable home for all of its new polyethylene (PE) production, even without a trade war with China. Using linear low-density PE (LLDPE) as […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Asian Polyolefins Profits To Test 2012 Lows As Global Economy Slows
By John Richardson PETROCHEMICALS are a great barometer for economic growth as they are the raw materials for so many finished goods. So, if petrochemicals producers see their profits slip, this provides an early signal that something is wrong with wider economies. It is not just petchems producers that should therefore take note of the […]
China Shadow Banking Squeeze Threatens Global Economy
By John Richardson THE trend that I identified last August is continuing. China is in the midst of a major contraction in lending via its highly unregulated, and so very risky, shadow banking system. Last year we saw a big fall in shadow lending, but now it has totally collapsed. In January, shadow lending was […]
US Stock Market Decline Highlights Consumer Spending, Income And Debt Risks
By John Richardson THE SUSTAINABILITY of the US economic recovery rests on the willingness of people who cannot afford to spend money to continue to spend money. In order to explain what I mean, let’s start with income and wealth distribution in the US. A US Federal Reserve study showed that the 90% of US […]
Asian Naphtha-PE Spreads Collapse By 80% As 2018 Challenges Build
By John Richardson ASIAN naphtha-to-polyethylene (PE) spreads collapsed by 80% in the first week of January compared with December last year because of the failure to pass on the rise in naphtha feedstock costs resulting from higher oil prices. In an update of the chart I’ve been running since late last year, what you see […]
Global Economy In 2018: Stimulus Withdrawal Threatens Complacent Outlook
By John Richardson IN TODAY’S world of soar-away stock markets backed up by the notion that the sustained global economic recovery will not be derailed in 2018, there is a need to detail the major risks out there. Today’s post will look at the risks posed by the withdrawal of Western and Chinese central bank […]
Stock Market Threats Far Wider Than Just North Korea
By John Richardson LAST WEEK’S steep fall in global stock markets was of course the result of rising US-North Korea geopolitical tensions. Some $1 trillion was wiped off equity values. We obviously all hope that the geopolitical tensions will ease. But that would still leave behind a bull-run in global equities that has mainly been […]
China’s “Minsky Moment” And The Global Economy
By John Richardson HYMAN MINSKY was an American economist who focused his career on studying the causes of financial crises. He developed what he called a ‘financial instability hypothesis” which was based on the notion that long periods of stability sow the seeds of future crises. His ground breaking work, which is used to explain […]
Income Stagnation And The Impact On The Global Economy
By John Richardson HAVE the post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) economic stimulus policies of the Western central banks worked? If your answer is yes, you might be heavily influenced by your economic circumstances. Those who are convinced that everything is working out just fine could include the small percentage of people at the summit of the […]
Anger Grows In The US Over Lost Economic Opportunities
By John Richardson THE US Federal Reserve is increasingly coming round to the understanding that demographics shape demand. Last week I heard about a research paper from the San Francisco Fed that made the same arguments that we made in our 2011 book, Boom Gloom and the New Normal. Now one of my LinkedIn contacts has […]
Jump to page: