THE HEADLINE IN the above slide has always been the case. But why it was forgotten could be because many of us spent most, if not all, of our professional careers in the benign period between the end of the Cold War in 1991 and the pivot in the US approach to China, which happened some four years ago.
Asian Chemical Connections
Demographics are reshaping petrochemicals trade flows, investment patterns and demand
By John Richardson TEN YEARS AGO, fellow blogger Paul Hodges and I first highlighted the leading role that changing demographics would play in reshaping petrochemicals supply and demand. We have been emphasising the importance of demographics ever since. Demographics have, of course, always been a critical shaper of economies throughout human history. But during […]
Iran may gain 48% of total China HDPE imports, 85% of LDPE imports by 2025 because of new deal
By John Richardson IRAN and China earlier this month signed a wide-ranging economic and security agreement that has been under negotiation for five years. The deal involves $400bn of investment in the overall Iranian economy with as much as $280bn of spending on oil, gas and petrochemicals. Before I crunch the data and demonstrate how […]
China’s environmental policies: scenarios essential for impact on local and global petrochemicals
By John Richardson WE MUST develop very nuanced, broad ranging and constantly updated scenarios about what could happen in China over the next 20 years. Special scenario teams need to be set up by petrochemicals companies that focus only on China because the country will remain by far the most important petrochemicals market. China will […]
China’s critical 2021 “two sessions” highlight major economic challenges ahead
By John Richardson IT CONTINUES to surprise and disappoint me how every minutiae of the recent US petrochemicals outages have been pored over by analysts and yet relatively little attention is being paid to plant operations in China and the real, underlying nature of the country’s petrochemicals demand. This is despite China being far more […]
China’s “two sessions” in 2021 could easily set the direction of global petchems for decades to come
By John Richardson DO YOU have a dedicated team studying the policy outcomes from this year’s meetings of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) which began last Friday and finish on 11 March? (These annual meetings are commonly referred to as the “two sessions”. For reasons described below, […]
Sustainability means reducing carbon emissions as well as plastic waste
By John Richardson THIS IS VERY much a personal plea to our industry about what I see as the biggest challenge we face in 2021 and beyond: carbon and other greenhouse gases. “We need to rebrand climate change as the climate crisis,” a source who works for an oil, gas and petrochemical company has been […]
China’s BRI will go from strength to strength, redrawing global petrochemicals map
By John Richardson CHINA’S Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) is alive and kicking and will, in my view, go from strength to strength as it radically reshapes the global economy, China’s geopolitical relationship with the US and global petrochemical trade flows and investments. Why it is alive and kicking? Because China has no other choice. […]
China may next year import 66% less PP from South Korea than in 2020, 72% less styrene from Saudi Arabia
By John Richardson All the numbers that follow are my estimates only and are not the official ICIS numbers. But I hope what follows helps you with your planning process for 2021. Our ICIS Supply & Demand Database is a key tool for your planning process, as all the scenarios below would have been impossible […]
China’s planned economy boosts global petchems this year but poses a self-sufficiency threat in 2021
By John Richardson IT IS always useful to develop a good plan and then effectively implement the plan. China appears to have been successful in both these respects in 2020 and this has been of great benefit to the global petrochemicals business. If only this were the case with all other countries. Without the plan, […]
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