By John Richardson THE WORST is over for the margin depletion that’s been experienced by US PE producers in Q4 2018 and likely in Q1 this year as well, I have heard it being argued. There are two problems with this view. Firstly, the worse can only be over if the Chinese economy bounces back. […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China slowdown: Loss of 7m tonnes of global PP demand points to new investment model
By John Richardson CHINA’S influence on the world economy has grown to such an extent over the last decade that is now a bigger driver of growth than the US and the EU combined, says Eurizon SLJ Asset Management. The US impact on global GDP shrunk from just over 40% in 1989-1998 to half that […]
Oil at $58-69 over next year as focus switches to demand
Guest blogger today is again Ajay Parmar in the second his posts. He is a chemical engineering professional with 5 years of industrial experience in oil refining, primarily in a process engineering capacity.He joined ICIS in 2018 as a Senior Analyst and currently works on developing a price forecasting model for crude oil and refined […]
Trade war dangers for US polyethylene re-emerge as talks appear to flounder
By John Richardson ONLY YESTERDAY just about everyone I spoke to in the polyethylene (PE) industry believed that the US and China would reach a trade deal by their 1 March deal. I agreed with them, although I kept cautioning during discussions that any trade deal would be paper thin […]
China propylene: 6.7m tonne demand hole threatens to swallow-up new projects
By John Richardson CONVENTIONAL opinion is that the global propylene market is moving from a balanced position to a balanced-to-tight position in 2018-2020. This will justify a significant wave of new investments is a common view. It is time to think again. We had expected Chinese propylene demand to grow by 6.9% in 2018 over […]
China 2018 polypropylene demand growth lowest in six years
By John Richardson CHINA’S apparent demand for polypropylene (PP) grew by 4.7% in 2018 over the previous year as the impact of the fall in auto and other durable goods sales hit the market hard, is my preliminary estimate. This would represent the lowest annual growth since 2012. Apparent demand, which is net imports plus […]
Risks for US petrochemicals grow as crucial trade talks resume
By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart further underlines what is at stake for the US petrochemicals industry as the US and China tomorrow resume high level trade talks in an attempt to end their trade war. The chart shows that if the US can export HDPE to China in 2019 and 2020, it will require […]
The polyethylene world is now even more hooked on China
By John Richardson CHINA’S NET PE imports look likely to have risen by an average of 20% in 2018 over the previous year across the three major grades. Apparent demand (net imports plus local production) looks as if it will be 12% higher. So much for excessive doom and gloom about the Chinese economy then? […]
Trade war fears return as US LLDPE becomes more exposed to China
By John Richardson THE ground has shifted under our feet once again. Just as it seemed as if the US and China would complete a trade deal by the 2 March deadline, the prospects of an agreement have suddenly diminished. This is the result of the Trump administration declining an offer from two Chinese vice-ministers […]
China full-year lending decline confirms that Fed pause is a sideshow
By John Richardson CHINA’S full-year 2018 lending figures are out and they underline what I’d be warning throughout last year – the withdrawal of stimulus back to the levels of the pre-2009 period. Shadow bank lending, which has led to extraordinary growth in demand for chemicals and polymers, and all the things made from chemicals […]
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