As always, the views in this blog post are my own and do not reflect the views of ICIS. Thank you By John Richardson THE US economy is enjoying an unprecedented economic recovery. It has been expanding for the past 122 consecutive months, the longest period in history. But, in my opinion, this is largely […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China imposes trade-war tariffs in US LDPE and raises tariffs on HDPE and LLDPE
By John Richardson DON’T SAY I didn’t tell you. As I predicted, China has levied trade-war tariffs on US LDPE as the long term US and China battles over trade, technology and geopolitics intensify. US LDPE imports will be subject to 10% tariffs from 15 December. The 25% tariffs that China imposed on US HDPE […]
President Trump’s tariff concession adds to uncertainties as we drift towards a bipolar world
The following opinions are my personal views, and, as always, do not express the views of ICIS By John Richardson PRESIDENT TRUMP could have blinked at the prospect of Christmas shoppers punishing him at the ballot box for the increased cost of gifts beneath their trees. This is what I think is behind his decision […]
China PE overstocking at above a million tonnes as Beijing struggles to boost economy
By John Richardson EVEN IF our base case growth rate* for PE in China in 2019 proves to be correct the H1 data still suggest excess inventories of 755,000 tonnes (click here for a post explaining the methodology). As the China economy further decelerates due to the trade war and domestic economic problems, I believe […]
China trade war duties on US LDPE “very likely” as global recession concerns grow
By John Richardson IT IS very likely that China will impose 25% additional imports duties on LDPE in response to the latest US escalation of the trade war, market sources have told me this week. This would add to the 25% duties that have been in place on US HDPE and LLDPE cargoes since August […]
Trade war certainties: A bi-polar world and the overwhelming importance of Chinese demand
By John Richardson THE IRONY IS that if the US trade deficit with China shrinks because of the trade war, its deficits with other developing countries may continue to increase as manufacturing chains are shifted away from China to avoid tariffs. The longer this situation continues, the more likely it could be that the US […]
Symptoms worsen for Dr Benzene and China economy as trade war accelerates
By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart is again telling us something very important about the real state of the Chinese economy. It shows Northeast Asian (NEA) benzene pricing spreads over naphtha feedstock costs, (NEA pricing is in effect a China price as of course China dominates the NEA region). Dr Benzene, as with Dr Copper, […]
China PE spreads at seven-year low indicates too many eggs in one basket
By John Richardson CHINA polyethylene (PE) spreads over naphtha feedstock costs are at a seven-year low and I believe that spreads will continue to decline to below their 2012 levels –a year which marked the last major industry profitability downturn (see the above chart). You might want to argue that this has to do with […]
Vietnam PE demand booms on trade war, but for how much longer?
By John Richardson GLOBAL manufacturing supply chains are adjusting to the US tariffs against China, accelerating a process that began a decade or so ago because of China’s ageing population versus more youthful populations elsewhere. Let’s use Vietnam as an example to first of all examine the longer term drift away from China. Since 2010, […]
China trade war self-reliance push threatens ethylene glycols and PP imports
By John Richardson CHINA WILL do what suits China and not what suits the rest of the petrochemicals and polymers word. And what suits China has radically changed because of the new US approach to international relations. No longer can China depend on the US, or indeed any other country, for the petrochemicals imports it […]
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