By John Richardson CHINA’S NET PE imports look likely to have risen by an average of 20% in 2018 over the previous year across the three major grades. Apparent demand (net imports plus local production) looks as if it will be 12% higher. So much for excessive doom and gloom about the Chinese economy then? […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Trade war fears return as US LLDPE becomes more exposed to China
By John Richardson THE ground has shifted under our feet once again. Just as it seemed as if the US and China would complete a trade deal by the 2 March deadline, the prospects of an agreement have suddenly diminished. This is the result of the Trump administration declining an offer from two Chinese vice-ministers […]
Oil prices to be buoyed by new shipping fuel rules, despite economic slowdown
Guest blogger today is Ajay Parmar. He is a chemical engineering professional with 5 years of industrial experience in oil refining, primarily in a process engineering capacity. He joined ICIS in 2018 as a Senior Analyst and currently works on developing a price forecasting model for crude oil and refined products. […]
Turkey PE demand could be 8% lower as economic problems continue
By John Richardson TURKEY’S apparent demand for PE may have fallen by 8% in 2018 to around 2m tonnes from 2.2m tonnes of demand in 2017, I estimate. PP doesn’t look to have been as badly affected, as I think apparent demand will be approximately 2.2m tonnes in 2018, some 40,000 tonnes less than in […]
Flood of US LLDPE begins to disrupt markets with worse to follow
By John Richardson THE ABOVE table illustrates the 2018 impact on smaller LLDPE markets of the arrival of big volumes of new US production. Big percentage increases such as these can be misleading when they are from very small bases. But look at it from this angle: Vietnam, Turkey, Malaysia, Thailand and Taiwan, province of […]
Scenario 1 inevitable? Are you really, really, hand on heart, that sure?
ICIS and the UK–based chemicals company International eChem had the privilege of making a presentation during the Knowledge Sharing Partners event at last month’s GPCA Forum in Dubai. The conference was organised by our excellent ICIS Conferences team. Please click this link for a copy of our slides: ICISConsultingPresentationGPCA2018 If you would like to further discuss […]
The Battle To Retain Metallocene Polyethylene Price Premiums
By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart could be a sign of a long term trend where we see metallocene linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) price premiums over standard, or C4 grade, LLDPE film at lower levels. We have already seen C6 metallocene premiums in Southeast Asia slip ever so slightly to an average of $113/tonne from […]
Asian Naphtha Cracker Spreads To Fall By 50% In 2018
By John Richardson ASIAN naphtha cracker operators will see a 50% decline in average spreads, or differentials, between their raw-material costs and finished product prices in 2018 compared with last year, according to my forecasts in the above chart. This will be the result of a further steep rise in oil prices and increased polyethylene […]
Struggling Polyethylene In 2018, Strong Profits Elsewhere
By John Richardson THERE will perhaps be two headline directions for the global chemicals and polymers industries in 2018: I believe that the global polyethylene (PE) market has a very good chance of moving from last year’s peak margins to levels of profitability below what is expected by most companies, investors and analysts. China’s ongoing […]
Asian Naphtha-PE Spreads Collapse By 80% As 2018 Challenges Build
By John Richardson ASIAN naphtha-to-polyethylene (PE) spreads collapsed by 80% in the first week of January compared with December last year because of the failure to pass on the rise in naphtha feedstock costs resulting from higher oil prices. In an update of the chart I’ve been running since late last year, what you see […]
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