As always, these are my personal views only and don’t reflect the views of ICIS By John Richardson AT TIMES like this it’s very hard to be dispassionate. Emotions run high on either side of the widening political gulf as the two factions shout ever-more loudly at each other and refuse to listen. This is […]
Asian Chemical Connections
US/China trade deal achieves little as China pushes hard towards petrochemicals self-sufficiency
By John Richardson PRESIDENT Trump has promised a “tremendous amount of business” for US farmers following the announcement of a “Phase 1” trade agreement with China. But US claims that China will eventually buy up to as much as $50bn of US agricultural products seem to defy economic logic given the price of soybeans, the […]
Asian PE and PP margins at lowest levels in at least five years and will go lower……
By John Richardson NOT since at least the beginning of 2014 have Northeast and Southeast Asian polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) margins been as low as they were for the week ending 29 November. We only began our margin assessments in 2014 and so last week’s margins may be lowest for an even longer period. […]
China’s polyethylene indigestion persists as margins point to major downturn
By John Richardson CHINA’S POLYETHYLENE (PE) market continues to display signs of chronic indigestion. Significant overstocking persists with Northeast Asian integrated naphtha-based PE margins pointing to the weak start of the market with conditions are set to deteriorate. The core of the problem is that Chinese growth isn’t going to be anywhere near strong enough […]
Little prospects of genuine US and China deal leave US petrochemicals exports very vulnerable
As always, this blog post expresses my own personal views and these are not the views of ICIS. Thanks By John Richardson TEN HOURS before I wrote this blog post, the South China Morning Post published an article headlined, “Dim prospects for a deal as China and US resume trade war talks”. The newspaper said […]
Global manufacturing slowdown: Turn to China’s polypropylene market for your explanation
By John Richardson THEY SADLY still don’t get it. All the clamour yesterday was about declining services and manufacturing growth in the West, with stock markets down until late-in-the-day rallies, probably because investors figured that the Fed will cut interest rates for a third time since the financial crisis later this month. But for the […]
China economic stimulus and PP: How global demand could have been 71m tonnes smaller
By John Richardson CHINA came to the rescue of the global economy in 2009. This wasn’t for altruistic reasons as a government study said that unless a huge stimulus programme was launched, 20m Chinese workers would return to the coastal cities from inland China after the Lunar New Year in 2009 without jobs. This would […]
Hong Kong an example of rising political risk and the end of easy growth
This blog expresses my opinions and not those of ICIS By John Ricuardson THE UNREST in Hong Kong worsened over the weekend. Protestors were pepper-sprayed, rubber bullets were used and travellers on the Hong Kong underground were filmed being beaten by the police. Petrol bombs were thrown by demonstrators. This morning Hong Kong’s airport was […]
China PE overstocking at nearly a million tonnes as demand weakens, competition intensifies
By John Richardson MEASURING petrochemicals and polymer inventory levels in China with any reasonable degree of accuracy is an impossible task. Nobody can quite obviously count every single plastic pallet in every warehouse up and down China’s vast distribution chains. Sinopec and PetroChina do, however, report their inventory levels. This is at least something and […]
China petrochemicals recovery on G20 trade war progress will be shortlived
By John Richardson China petrochemical and polymer price spreads over naphtha feedstock costs will rebound over the next few weeks as a result of events at the G2o meeting in Japan. The US has agreed to resume trade talks with China and pause on imposing any more tariffs on Chinese goods. Buyers of petrochemicals and […]
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