By John Richardson THE above chart may end up being an underestimate of the extent to which US linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) gains further market share in Europe. But this chart is by itself bad enough. Here’s my logic behind the above chart. thanks to numbers from our our excellent ICIS Supply & Demand Database: […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Risks for US petrochemicals once again rise as trade war takes another twist
By John Richardson JUST when nearly of all us (including me) thought that a trade deal was about to happen, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has thrown quite a large spanner in the works. “I can’t predict success at this point, but we’re working hard and we have made real progress,” he told a Senate […]
US PE margins have further to fall on higher production, China weakness
By John Richardson THE WORST is over for the margin depletion that’s been experienced by US PE producers in Q4 2018 and likely in Q1 this year as well, I have heard it being argued. There are two problems with this view. Firstly, the worse can only be over if the Chinese economy bounces back. […]
Risks for US petrochemicals grow as crucial trade talks resume
By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart further underlines what is at stake for the US petrochemicals industry as the US and China tomorrow resume high level trade talks in an attempt to end their trade war. The chart shows that if the US can export HDPE to China in 2019 and 2020, it will require […]
Trade war fears return as US LLDPE becomes more exposed to China
By John Richardson THE ground has shifted under our feet once again. Just as it seemed as if the US and China would complete a trade deal by the 2 March deadline, the prospects of an agreement have suddenly diminished. This is the result of the Trump administration declining an offer from two Chinese vice-ministers […]
Oil prices to be buoyed by new shipping fuel rules, despite economic slowdown
Guest blogger today is Ajay Parmar. He is a chemical engineering professional with 5 years of industrial experience in oil refining, primarily in a process engineering capacity. He joined ICIS in 2018 as a Senior Analyst and currently works on developing a price forecasting model for crude oil and refined products. […]
Turkey PE demand could be 8% lower as economic problems continue
By John Richardson TURKEY’S apparent demand for PE may have fallen by 8% in 2018 to around 2m tonnes from 2.2m tonnes of demand in 2017, I estimate. PP doesn’t look to have been as badly affected, as I think apparent demand will be approximately 2.2m tonnes in 2018, some 40,000 tonnes less than in […]
Flood of US LLDPE begins to disrupt markets with worse to follow
By John Richardson THE ABOVE table illustrates the 2018 impact on smaller LLDPE markets of the arrival of big volumes of new US production. Big percentage increases such as these can be misleading when they are from very small bases. But look at it from this angle: Vietnam, Turkey, Malaysia, Thailand and Taiwan, province of […]
US/China trade deal in March would likely quickly unravel
By John Richardson YOU CAN bet on a rally in equity markets and in oil prices if some kind of deal is announced by the US and China over their trade dispute by the 1 March deadline. But we could be back to Square One if a deal is then picked apart by President Trump’s […]
The world in 2019: Social unrest, populist politics, trade barriers and global recession
By John Richardson I PREDICTED in 2011 that the world would by a decade later be less globalised as a result of new trade barriers erected by populist politicians. Nature abhors a vacuum and so vacuums in nature are quickly filled. The same applies to politics and society. I warned that the failure to address […]
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