By John Richardson WHY is it that even though demand in the US for petrochemicals is still well below the 2007 peak, as indicated by the latest American Chemistry Council capacity utilisation chart, the November ICIS Petrochemical (IPEX) for the US shows pricing at such elevated levels? (see the charts below). “Never mind,” one might […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Every Time You Dip Your Toe In The Water…
By John Richardson EVERY time you dip your toe in the water the political temperature in China can feel a little different. For instance, in this article in the New York Times, published on 19 July, the newspaper wrote: “Communist Party cadres have filled meeting halls around China to hear a sombre, secretive warning issued […]
China’s Balancing Act: Reforming Land Rights And Hukou
Xi Jinping By John Richardson THE good health of China’s economy and the future of the Communist Party depend on giving farmers individual land-ownership rights and allowing equal rights for migrants in cities, an official from a leading Beijing-based government think tank told Bloomberg in this article. “Land and hukou reform is the cornerstone […]
China Commodities Rally About Protecting Existing Debt
By John Richardson OVER the last few days we have focused on the increased risk-on trade in commodities, including petrochemicals. But maybe the rallies we have seen in products such as fibre intermediates and polyethylene (PE) are mainly about traders being forced to increase their risk profiles in order to protect existing liquidity. Here is the […]
China’s SMEs Face New Lending Problem
By John Richardson CHINA’S small and medium-sized (SMEs) may already be finding it increasingly difficult to source trade finance as a result of the late June credit crackdown warned Winnie Wu, Hong Kong-based research analyst at Merrill Lynch, who was quoted in this article in The Economist. “A tightening of reckless credit is necessary in […]
At Least One Company Saw It Coming
By John Richardson A MAJOR petrochemicals company two years ago predicted that real Chinese GDP growth, as opposed to the “man-made” official numbers, would fall to 4% in 2013 and 2014, a source with that company told the blog. This is tremendous to hear as it means that at least one company was well ahead of […]
A Delicate Balancing Act
XI Jinping (see picture), the country’s new president, is being described either as a nationalist, who has set China on an overly aggressive course or as someone who will skilfully and harmoniously guide the nation through major domestic and international reforms. According to Robert Lawrence Kuhn , an international investment banker and author, Xi’s nationalism, or […]
China Market Rally In Context
By John Richardson ETHYLENE spot prices rose by $20-50/tonne in Asia last week on the back of stronger derivatives pricing, including a $5-25/tonne increase in polyethylene (PE), according to ICIS. However, nobody is cracking open the champagne. As the chart above shows, despite a $51/tonne improvement in Northeast Asia’s variable cost integrated margins for […]
Get Behind China
By John Richardson THE blog is often accused of being pessimistic. We are not. We are just realistic. It was realistic last November to anticipate that China’s new leaders would be dedicated to major economic reform. In fact, this was clear even earlier than that – back in February 2012 when the World Bank produced […]
Beijing: China Deceleration On Track
Source of chart: http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/ By John Richardson THERE has been a hugely important shift in the attitude of China’s central government. In the old days, when they set a target of say 12% national industrial production growth for a particular year, such targets were usually wildly exceeded. This was the result of local governments, […]
Jump to page: