The fourth quarter (Q4) of 2020 is the most consequential quarter in generations. It feels like hyperbole to type and sounds just as sensationalistic when said aloud, but not since Q4 1941, when the bombing of Pearl Harbor changed the US’ relationship with the rest of the globe for the next 80 years, has there […]
Chemical Connections
Chemical Investor Forum: Exploring regression analysis to forecast Westlake’s earnings
The multiple linear regression analysis technique shows a 0.87 R-squared value for Westlake Chemical’s quarterly EBITDA (2012-2020) as the dependant variable against a basket of 17 ICIS chemical prices. This suggests that in 87% of cases, Westlake’s quarterly earnings can be explained by movements in the basket of ICIS chemical prices. Financial analysts can use […]
China moves closer to Iran as tensions with the US build: Implications for petrochemicals
By John Richardson Opinions and emotions and can shape how we interpret data, but, as we all know, our personal views need to be put on hold and our emotions held in check when the numbers are being crunched. This is of course easier said than done on highly emotive subjects such as the widening […]
Pandemic creating baby booms and busts – and challenges for the supply chain
The coronavirus pandemic is amplifying birth rate trends in many parts of the world, creating via procreation (or lack thereof) challenges and opportunities to the supply chains that serve families. Data points to increases in countries such as India and Indonesia, where birth rates already were high. Meanwhile, in Europe and the US, where birth […]
China polyolefins market H1 review: so far so good, but beware of the risks ahead
By John Richardson ALL looks fine in the polyolefins world. The Old Normal appears to have reasserted itself as Chinese demand has come roaring back. (Note that all the following numbers are on a year-on-year basis unless otherwise stated.) H1 2020 data shows that polyethylene (PE) apparent demand (net imports plus local production) grew by […]
Polyethylene market recovery could be threatened by slower China crude buying, weaker economic growth
By John Richardson EVEN by China’s standards, where just about every number is eye-wateringly large, the data on oil imports during the first seven months of this year is quite extraordinary. Reuters writes: July seaborne arrivals into the world’s biggest oil importer are expected to surge to 14.4m bbl/day, Refinitiv analyst Emma Li said, well […]
No time to waste in solving ocean plastic dilemma
It feels like we could all use some good news, so how about this: We already have the capabilities to reduce ocean plastic waste by about 80% by 2040. That jolt of positivity comes from Breaking the Plastic Wave, a newly issued report by The Pew Charitable Trusts and SYSTEMIQ and thought partners – the […]
Why the polypropylene industry must switch from volumes to value
By John Richardson EVERYONE knows about the oversupply in the polyethylene (PE) market as it has been discussed in more presentations and conferences than any of have had hot dinners. But less understood is the extent of oversupply in the global polypropylene (PP) business, which you can see from the above chart on the left. […]
Helping the chemical supply chain not be BlackBerry
Market-driven economics work, even if they at first are overwhelmed by unprecedented demand. Such is the case with isopropanol (IPA), whose demand for use in sanitation remains at levels stronger than before the coronavirus pandemic gripped the world. But US IPA prices continue to fall from the stratospheric heights achieved in April when initial demand […]
China consulate closure underlines long-term split with US, potential big shift in petchems trade flows
By John Richardson A VIEW often expressed is that if Joe Biden wins the US presidential election in November, relationships between the US and China will greatly improve. I believe, though, that the die has already been cast because of a bipartisan consensus in the US that the geopolitical rise of China needs to be […]
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