There was good and bad news from the latest IeC Boom/Gloom Index.
The good news was that the Austerity reading fell quite sharply. Markets have moved on from the Greek crisis. And confidence seems to have been restored, at least temporarily, by the results of the ‘stress tests’ on the major European banks.
But the bad news was that the Index itself fell back to the 4.0 level that described the downturn period in financial markets from November 2008 – April 2009. This is worrying, as most markets staged an impressive rally during July, with the US S&P 500 rising 7%.
However, these rallies took place on low volume. Whereas a strong market should see rising volumes, as new investors join the rally. August’s Index will therefore be critical. If it stays low, then the next stage of the downturn may well be close at hand.