How many more empty cities like Ordos does China really need? Are 64.5m empty apartments enough, or should there be more? Should we build more steel mills, to add to the current 220MT of over-capacity? These are the questions facing China’s leadership today, as they debate the economic slowdown. Growth has slowed to a relative […]
Chemicals and the Economy
A is for Agility in today’s VUCA world
Pity the poor purchasing manager, who: • Must keep inventories low as end-user demand remains slow, and the CFO remains very worried about the working capital risk • Must keep inventories high, to minimise the risk of running short if supply problems develop and prices jump Benzene (green line), as always, is the great example […]
Force majeures decline as operating rates slow
The good news is that the blog’s 6 monthly review of force majeures shows considerable improvement from H1 2011’s performance. As the chart indicates, the number of ICIS news reports of force majeures halved from 375 in 2011 to 179. Some of the decline was, of course, expected as there has thankfully been no repeat […]
US, UK goverment bond yields follow Japan’s example
The arrival of the internet should make it easier to source key data from around the world. But instead, it seems to encourage Twitter-like behaviour, where everyone simply repeats what has already been said. How else to explain the almost universal view that government bond yields in countries such as the US and UK are […]
China’s low-cost vehicle exports rise 43% in May
2 great myths are helping to destroy company profits as we transition to the New Normal: • In the West, it is that ‘recovery is just around the corner’ • In emerging economies, that everyone is now ‘middle class’ Sadly, this latter claim makes no sense at all. The reason is that it is based […]
US consumers enter the New Normal
The chart above opens chapter 7 of ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal’, which looks at the changes taking place in consumer markets. June’s US retail sales provide clear evidence of the trends it describes: • They grew at the slowest pace in 2 years, despite falling gasoline prices • Mid-market stores suffered the biggest […]
ACS Chemistry and the Economy webinar on Thursday
IMF warns of lower global growth
Once again, the chemical industry has performed its role as a reliable leading indicator of the global economy. On Friday, the IMF warned their next forecast: “Will be tilted to the downside and certainly lower than the forecast that was published three months ago” This will not be news to blog readers. As the chart […]
Eurozone politicians have built a Tower of Babel
Last week saw the 20th EU ‘Crisis Summit’. Like the previous 19, it achieved little. Yet everyone at the meeting knew what had to be agreed: • A banking union which operates across national borders • The issuing of joint Eurozone bonds, guaranteed by all euro members • Adoption of a Federal budget and economic […]
Most pension funds have negative returns since 2007
The chart above should be of great interest to anyone who hopes to retire on a pension. It should also be required reading for any executives planning their business portfolio for the future. Published by the Financial Times, it shows the actual performance of pension funds in selected OECD countries since 2001: • The blue […]
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