Europe faces major geopolitical threats:
- In the East, the EU faces an existential challenges from Russia’s Ukraine invasion and its “no limits” partnership with China
- In the West, there is rising uncertainty over Donald Trump’s support for Europe if he becomes president. As he told Bloomberg:
“The ‘European Union’ sounds so lovely… We love Scotland and Germany. We love all these places. But once you get past that, they treat us violently.”
And in response, voters are moving back to the centre ground. As The Guardian noted ahead of the re-election of Ursula von der Leyen as European Commission President:
“Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump would be delighted if a combination of the extreme right, assorted nationalists, communists and grumpy conservatives plunged the EU into crisis by voting her down”.
Instead, Ms von der Leyen’s majority actually rose in Thursday’s Parliament election, from 9 in 2019 to 41 this time. MEPs didn’t want to plunge Europe into crisis mode at a time of major geopolitical tension.
And later on Thursday, French President Macron’s centre party joined the centre-right parties to win the presidency of the National Assembly, beating the far-right and far-left.
TWO POLICIES WILL BE KEY FOR THE SECOND TERM
Von der Leyen’s new Commission will need to urgently focus on two key issues:
- It is vital that it moves forward quickly to develop an industrial strategy based on the Green Deal, as discussed last week
- It also needs to create a new European Defence Union for the first time and develop more joint European defence projects.
Neither of these will be easy, but VDL, as she is known, delivered on the key issues during her first term.
She negotiated a collective vaccine agreement to end the Covid pandemic; finalised a complex package of laws to launch the Green Deal; and was early and decisive in her support for Ukraine after the invasion.
THE NEW UK GOVERNMENT WILL LIKELY BE AN IMPORTANT PARTNER
UK GENERAL ELECTION
Crucially, the new Labour government in the UK seems likely to provide important support in both areas.
As with the European Parliament elections, our preview last month proved broadly accurate:
- The Labour Party secured a ‘massive victory’ as the maps show
- The Liberal Democrats won a record number of seats in the South and West
- And the Scottish Nationalists were reduced to just 9 seats in Scotland
New Labour premier, Sir Keir Starmer, has also lost no time in rebuilding relationships after the chaos of recent years. He went straight to the Nato Summit in Washington after the election, and then chaired the European Political Community summit at Blenheim Palace on Thursday, where he noted in his welcoming speech:
“We want to work with all of you to reset relationships, rediscover our common interests and renew the bonds of trust and friendship that brighten the fabric of European life.
“And the task is urgent because our security is on the line. Every day Ukraine fights to protect not just the Ukrainian people, but the European people. A continent where our belief in freedom, democracy and the rule of law was hard-won.”