A small polling error could mean a blowout either way
Polls aren’t really very helpful when it comes to forecasting “unusual” elections. This is why we were one of the very few to forecast a Trump win in the 2016 election from September 2015. The key factor was that his brand of populism “was impacting mainstream parties in both the USA and Europe”.
2020 was a more typical election. Biden was always the most likely winner. Our focus was instead on the potential for:
“Post-election chaos”. And we asked “What will happen if President Trump loses the election?”
This year, the polls are again close. But as the chart from analysts 538 suggests, this doesn’t necessarily mean the result itself will be close:
“Although Trump and Harris have roughly equal chances of winning the election, the final margin is not necessarily going to be close. In fact, there’s a pretty high probability that it won’t be.”
VOTER ENTHUSIASM CAN BE KEY TO THE ELECTION RESULT
Not every piece of election data matters every time. But voter enthusiasm can be important as the Gallup chart shows:
- The party with the most enthusiastic voters won in 2000, 2008, 2016 and 2020
- 2004 was tied, and 2012 was “the exception that proves the rule“
The data for 2024 is most unusual. A record 70% of all voters are “enthusiastic” about voting. This is nearly twice the 2000 level.
Importantly, Democrats are as enthusiastic as in 2008, during the first Obama campaign. And Gallup’s second poll suggests more than half will have voted before Election Day.
A MAJOR GENDER GAP HAS OPENED UP IN VOTING INTENTIONS
CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT: BY GENDER
Men and women often take a different approach. And more recently this has translated into different voting patterns as CAWP data on the gender gap shows:
- In the 1980s, the gap averaged seven points; in the 1990s, it ranged from four to eleven points.
- In the 2000s, it averaged 8 points; from 2012-20, it averaged approximately 10 points.
This year, it is again high, as the CBS/YouGov chart suggests.
Of course, each individual will have their own reasons for voting for either candidate. But 2 key issues stood out in the candidates closing pitches:
- Donald Trump focused on immigration, arguing that it “was the most important issue of the election“
- Kamala Harris focused on her plan to be “a president who would back women’s reproductive rights”
REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS ARE A KEY ISSUE FOR MANY WOMEN
ABORTION ON THE 2022 MIDTERMS BALLOT
Importantly also, voters supported allowing abortion in 6 state ballots in 2022, as the ABC News chart shows – even in strongly Republican states.
This year, abortion rights initiatives are on the ballot in 10 states.
And the 2022 result suggests they will likely encourage women voters to vote.
As Time magazine reports “If Kamala Harris is elected the first woman President, it will be because women voters put her in the Oval Office. And if women voters put her there, it will be in large part because of abortion”.
Voter enthusiasm is usually key to election victory. And it is clear that Trump’s focus on immigration is enthusing many voters.
But logic suggests that Kamala Harris’ focus on women’s reproductive rights makes her best placed to win, potentially with a larger majority than the polls suggest.