OPEC would have been better advised to keep prices low to reduce non-OPEC supply. Instead, they are likely to face some difficult pricing decisions later in the year, if global growth continues to slow.
Chemicals and the Economy
EU and UK elections will likely set new course for Europe, as geopolitical tensions rise
Both elections could well prove the most important in decades. The EU faces major crises with Russia’s invasion and the risk of deindustrialisation. The UK also faces crises – on the economy, the health service and governance. And both know that November’s US election may add to their challenges.
Chemical prices start to slide in Asia and Europe, as summer slowdown starts early
Geopolitics are starting to fragment the global economy again. Economics are no longer the key driver for decisions. And so we need to refocus on the geopolitical risks ahead.
China’s housing market moves from boom to bust
China’s housing inventory is now at a record 25 months. Prices/demand continue to fall. And local government land sale income has already fallen 1/3rd since 2021 to $800 billion, with a further 10% fall to expected this year. And so now services are having to be cut.
Smartphone sales continue to slow as consumer demand patterns change
Q1 data showed that many consumers are tightening their belts and focusing on value for money. But investors don’t yet seem to have noticed, and are bidding up Apple’s share price to euphoric levels.
Currency wars kick off as Japanese yen tumbles close to 38-year low
This is the 3rd time we have forewarned of an approaching crisis. Both previous times, ahead of the Great Financial Crisis and the Covid pandemic, we were told we “didn’t know what we were talking about”. Let’s hope its “3rd time lucky” and that “this time is different”.
“Gradually, then Suddenly” – Hemingway’s insight starts to apply to the New Normal’s arrival
As Hemingway noted, everyone is your friend when things are going well. But as countries and individuals are now starting to discover, the hangover when the party ends can be a painful experience.
US and EU prepare for trade war with China on Electric Vehicles as auto demand patterns change
The world is now moving from today’s “Continuous Instability” into “Growing Disruption”. Real wars are already escalating in Europe and the Middle East. Trade wars are beginning. And Demand Patterns in key industries such as autos are starting to change very rapidly.
US Treasury Secretaries change their minds on trade and inflation policies
Policymakers in the West and the East now find themselves adrift in increasingly stormy seas, without a compass. Their 2 key policy tools on trade and inflation have proved to be wrong. New thinking on the role of central banks is urgently required.
Oil and financial markets start to wake up to geopolitical reality
The oil price has rallied 22% over the past 4 months, since it bottomed at $74/bbl. And slowly but surely, traders are being forced to realise that geopolitics are replacing economics as the key driver for world markets.
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