The IMF has now confirmed that the world economy has moved into the synchronised slowdown that I forecast here a year ago. Its analysis also confirms the importance of the issues highlighted then, including “rising trade barriers and increasing geopolitical tensions”, a sharp decline in manufacturing, contraction in the auto industry and structural forces such […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Boris Johnson will have to disappoint someone in 2020 as the UK finally leaves the EU
Finally, after three and a half years, the UK has reached “the end of the beginning” with Brexit, in Winston Churchill’s famous phrase. Since the referendum, its leaders have consistently refused to confront the real choices that have to be made over what type of Brexit it wants to have: In June 2016, then premier […]
ACS Chemistry & the Economy webinar on Thursday
Please join me for the next ACS Chemicals & Economy webinar on Thursday, at 2pm Eastern Standard Time, USA, when we will discuss: The contrast between the downbeat outlook for the chemical market and the upbeat stock market The challenges facing US shale gas polyethylene exports due to the US-China trade war and concerns over […]
What’s next for Brexit and chemicals?
The UK is about to go to the polls again to try and decide the Brexit issue. Chemicals will be one of the industries most affected by the decision, as it depends on cross-border supply chains. As the UK Chemical Industries Association has warned: “The chemical industry in the UK and in Europe needs a […]
Global economy hits stall speed, whilst US S&P 500 sets new records
Whisper it not to your friends in financial markets, but the global economy is moving into recession. The US stock markets keep making new highs, thanks to the support from the major western central banks. But in the real world, where the rest of us live, the best leading indicator for the global economy is […]
Budgeting for paradigm shifts and a debt crisis
It is now 8 years since John Richardson and I published our 10-year forecast for 2021 in Boom, Gloom and the New Normal: How the Western BabyBoomers are Changing Demand Patterns, Again’. Remarkably, its core conclusions are very relevant today, as the summary confirms. Unfortunately, as we feared, policymakers refused to junk their out-of-date models, […]
Paradigm shifts create Winners and Losers
MY ANNUAL BUDGET OUTLOOK WILL BE PUBLISHED NEXT WEEK Next week, I will publish my annual Budget Outlook, covering the 2020-2022 period. The aim, as always, will be to challenge conventional wisdom when this seems to be heading in the wrong direction. Before publishing the new Outlook each year, I always like to review my […]
Markets face major paradigm shifts as recession approaches
Major paradigm shifts are occurring in the global economy, as I describe in a new analysis for ICIS Chemical Business Over the past 25 years, the budget process has tended to assume that the external environment will be relatively stable. 2008 was a shock at the time, of course, but many have now forgotten the […]
No Deal Brexit still a likely option if opposition parties fail to support a new referendum
Canada’s normally pro-UK ‘Globe and Mail’ summed up the prevailing external view of Brexit last week: “We begin this editorial with an apology to you, our faithful readers. In March, we described the Brexit situation, then careening through its third year and nowhere close to resolution, as an “omnishambles. “An omnishambles is a state of […]
UK, EU27 and EEA businesses need to start planning for a No Deal Brexit on 31 October
New UK premier, Boris Johnson, said last week that the UK must leave the EU by 31 October, “do or die, come what may”. This means UK, EU27 and EEA companies now have less than 100 days to prepare for a UK No Deal Brexit. That’s less than 70 working days – and even less […]
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