Demand patterns are now changing rapidly. We now have a demographic deficit, rather than a dividend. And the peace dividend has also disappeared.
Chemicals and the Economy
Suez/Panama Canal disruptions confirm need for companies to move to ‘local for local’ supply chains
The growing disruption in the Suez and Panama Canals is set to encourage more companies to move to ‘local for local’ supply chains. These are not only more resilient, but also make firms more agile – and reduce their carbon emissions.
Demographics are destiny: today’s ageing populations creating “replacement economy”
Demographics are taking demand patterns in completely new directions. Sustaining future growth now depends on successfully developing and implementing new policies, focused on the opportunities offered by the emergence of the Perennials 55+ cohort. Demographics are taking demand patterns in completely new directions. Sustaining future growth now depends on successfully developing and implementing new policies, focused on the opportunities offered by the emergence of the Perennials 55+ cohort.
Middle-Income countries face a real risk of “growing old before they become rich”
China and most Middle-Income countries seem destined to grow old before they become rich. As Pew Foundation data shows, China had just 23m people who earned more than $50/day in $2011. India has only 2m.
Demographics are destiny for the global economy, as central banks start to realise
For the past 15 years, since the Global Financial Crisis, central banks have claimed they could generate demand and economic growth via stimulus. Some $73tn of spending later, it is finally becoming clear to some of them, at least, that they can’t.
Now, we all have to start picking up the pieces of the problems they have created.
COP 28 needs to see words translated into action, as carbon emissions have to peak in 2025
“Every year of the baby steps we’ve been taking up to this point means that we need to be taking bigger leaps with each following year, if we are to stay in this race. The science is absolutely clear.”
US interest rate rises start to threaten the housing market bubble
Most Americans can’t qualify for a mortgage today with prices and interest rates at generation-highs. Yet housing starts average a post-2007 record of 1.5m/month. Logic therefore suggests the US housing market could be heading for a repeat of the 2008 crisis
Investors should pack a copy of the Old Testament for the beach
Companies need to prepare for much slower, or maybe even negative growth and deflation. Optimistically, one can hope this paradigm shift will be good news for Net Zero investments. But it also makes it more difficult to reduce the vast debts created by recent stimulus programmes.
Central banks leak $bns as losses from their stimulus policies start to soar
The losses sitting on central bank balance sheets are starting to soar to eye-watering levels. The US Federal Reserve is sitting on a “mark-to-market” loss of $911bn. The UK taxpayer has already handed over £150bn ($192bn) to cover the Bank of England’s losses.
Europe’s chemicals market highlights move into recession, and risk of future deflation
The chemical industry is now starting to warn us of a new risk. Europe is already suffering from a cost of living crisis. And people simply can’t afford to pay even higher prices for energy. At a certain point, therefore, demand may simply collapse, and usher in deflation
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