China’s government tends not to like surprises. Its usual tactic is therefore to talk about policy changes well in advance. And this is what seems to be happening with regard to the real estate bubble. Back in September, premier Wen Jiabao said it would probably take 2 – 3 years to cool the bubble properly. […]
Chemicals and the Economy
UK house prices begin to slip
The UK housing market has presented a confusing picture over the past 2 years. Unlike Spain, Ireland, or the USA, the lax lending conditions of the Boom years did not seem to lead to major price falls. In fact, along with Australia (benefiting from China’s commodity boom), UK prices even appeared to recover. This was […]
Warsh calls for “better policies” as G-20 meets
US Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is one of the few policymakers to focus on reality rather than wishful thinking. He pointed out nearly 3 years ago that liquidity should not be mistaken for capital, although others continue to ignore this uncomfortable fact. Now, in advance of tomorrow’s G-20 meeting of the world’s richest economies, he […]
US Fed launches its $600bn QE2 Lifeboat
So now its official. This week, the US Federal Reserve confirmed it was launching its ‘QE2 Lifeboat’. It will inject $600bn into the US economy, in yet another bid to kick-start full economic recovery. Clearly, this is a major initiative by the world’s most important central bank. Will it work? And what might it mean […]
European consumers focus on people, not things
As promised, the blog is today looking at a key European consumer trend, as part of its Budget Outlook week. 70% of chemical sales are consumer-related, so changes in these trends are very important. Earlier this month, it shared a platform in Bahrain with Thibaut Eissautier, Chief Procurement Officer of McBride, Europe’s leading own-label producer […]
US housing enters the New Normal
This is Budget Outlook week in the blog. And for the rest of the week, it is looking at a key issue in a major Region. Today, it highlights the US housing market. This used to be a $35bn market for chemicals, with up to 2.2m housing starts a year, each worth $16k in sales. […]
Budgeting for Uncertainty
When elephants fight, those around them need to be cautious. And this is the prospect for 2011-13, as the Western countries try to force the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) to export less and import more, the so-called ‘rebalancing’ strategy. Thus Budgeting for Uncertainty seems the right title for the blog’s annual Outlook for […]
USA aims “to inflate the rest of the world”
If you only read one newspaper article this year on the economic outlook, then the blog would recommend Martin Wolf’s recent analysis ‘Why America is going to win the global currency battle’. Wolf is a former EPCA speaker, and he sets out very convincingly the rationale for the US Federal Reserve’s planned move to restart […]
Shell sees “supply revolution” in natural gas
Natural gas markets, so important in relation to chemical feedstock availability and pricing, are undergoing major change as we transition to the New Normal. The Middle East, which had been in surplus, is now moving to a more balanced position in some countries, such as Saudi Arabia. But the USA, which had expected to need […]
Uncertainty rules in petrochemicals
The blog’s former ICI colleague, Tom Crotty, aptly summarised the mood of most petchem players at this week’s meeting in Budapest, Hungary, when telling ICIS’ Nigel Davis that “2011 is a very tough call to forecast”. Crotty is this year’s president of EPCA (European Petrochemical Association), and it was clear from the blog’s discussions that […]
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