Bill White’s important critique of the policies being followed by his former central bank colleagues echoes his warnings before the 2008 Crisis. One of his key points is that they have focused on manipulating the value of financial assets, ratehr than on developments in the real economy: “The price of financial assets, just think of Bunds […]
Chemicals and the Economy
India’s auto market remains dominated by motorbikes
4 years ago, India could do no wrong. The ‘Incredible India’ campaign had captured imaginations around the world, and almost everyone seemed to believe that it was destined to become a major player in any market that it chose. Analysts were particularly excited about the potential for the auto market, with one major company suggesting: […]
US auto sales close to running on empty
We’ve all had that moment of jumping into the car, and turning on the ignition, only to realise we forgot to fill up the fuel tank on the last journey. US auto sales data for April is flashing that same familiar orange warning light. From the outside, everything looked fine with the data. Although there […]
US GDP disappoints again as aging Boomers slow the economy
“Year after year we have had to explain from mid-year on why the global growth rate has been lower than predicted as little as two quarters back.” That was the comment, last August, from the new deputy chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Stanley Fischer. This year, he won’t have to wait until mid-year to start the […]
Q1 auto sales rise just 1.9% in world’s ‘Top 7’ markets
Its hard to be optimistic about the outlook for the global auto market. The chart above of the Top 7 markets, which account for around 2/3rds of global sales, highlights the growing uncertainty. It shows Q1 sales in 2015 (blue column) versus 2014 (blue). Overall, these were up just 1.9% at 15.8m. And although the […]
BRIJ auto markets continue to struggle
Q1 showed little sign of improvement in the world’s second-tier auto markets – Brazil, Russia, India, Japan. In total, their sales used to equal those of the EU, the world’s 3rd largest market. But Q1 volumes saw a 16% decline versus 2014 levels, as the chart shows: Japan’s sales were boosted in 2014 (blue column) by buying ahead […]
China’s used car market set to drive future auto sales growth
China’s auto market is going through major change. Tier 1 cities have imposed limits on car ownership, and car use by government officials is being severely restricted. In addition, the lending bubble that drove major growth in recent years is coming to an end. Perhaps even more importantly for the medium term, a used car market is now developing […]
Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP indicator at 0.2%, as US housing, auto sales remain below previous trends
US housing starts are slowing so far this year, with February’s starts just below the million level again on an annualised basis. This follows the steadily declining rate of home ownership, which is now back at 1995’s level of 64%. And yesterday’s Case-Shiller report on home prices suggests the 10-City Index may well have peaked back in […]
Discounts support EU auto sales as Paris plans diesel car ban
A mild winter, combined with 20% price discounts, has kept EU auto sales in growth mode. Latest data from ACEA shows January sales at 999k were the best for the month since 2011’s 1.042m. The chart above shows the 12-month trend line since 2005, to avoid seasonal fluctuations with the monthly data (blue line): Sales were […]
BMW says China’s auto sales are heading into a New Normal
Its amazing what a lending bubble can do in the short-term, as the above chart shows. It updates my August post for the Financial Times, and highlights the astonishing rise in China’s bank lending since 2008 on the x-axis, and the remarkable rise in auto sales on the y-axis. Official data shows average disposable income last […]
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