Markets are finally rediscovering their core role of price discovery. The US 10-year rate has risen 0.5% since the Fed cut its rate by 0.5%. And so the clock is now ticking for the biggest stock market bubble of our lifetimes.
Chemicals and the Economy
China’s cheap, well-made, Electric Vehicles take centre stage at Paris Motor Show
2025 is therefore likely to be a make-or-break year for many European automakers. Chinese automakers can already export profitably into Europe, despite the new tariffs. And they will soon be opening European plants to avoid the tariffs altogether
Chemicals industry starts to focus on Reinvention options at Berlin conference
The key is to rethink the business and become demand-led. And the good news is that companies are now starting to explore this option.
Middle East and Ukraine Wars, US election and China’s slowdown threaten ‘October surprise’ for markets
The real “October surprise” for markets might be to find out that central banks are powerless against today’s major geopolitical risks.
Deflation risks rise as OPEC aims to regain market share and cut oil prices
Oil market developments need very careful attention. If prices do now fall below $50/bbl, then central banks will likely rush to make major cuts in interest rates. And that will make deflation even more likely.
China’s economy risks heading into recession as Producer Prices enter deflation
China’s problems are spreading to the rest of the world. Not only is it exporting deflation, as its Producer Prices fall. But also, and understandably, consumer countries are introducing trade barriers to protect their own industries
OPEC+ risks losing control of oil markets
Oil traders have built a record bearish position in oil futures, as they expect consumption growth to stay weak. So it would be no surprise at all to see prices fall towards the $50/bbl level.
VW’s job cuts highlight challenges facing Europe’s auto industry
Chinese auto companies see Europe as a major opportunity. They are already investing in local plants to avoid import tariffs. European legacy companies such as VW need to move quickly to head off the threat. But their culture is slow-moving and cautious. They risk becoming Losers in today’s New Normal market.
Gasoline/diesel auto sales have moved into long-term decline
The global auto market is going through major change. Gasoline/diesel cars seem set for major decline as the market transitions to EVs. In turn, business models are also set to change as the focus moves from “precision engineering” to “software”.
European voters rally to the centre as external threats increase
Europe faces major geopolitical threats. In the East, the EU faces an existential challenges from Russia’s Ukraine invasion and its “no limits” partnership with China. In the West, there is rising uncertainty over Donald Trump’s support for Europe if he became president
Jump to page: