The Houthi attacks and increased hurricane risks highlight how geopolitics are replacing economics as the key driver for decisions. Global supply chains are increasingly being replaced by local-for-local operations as producers aim to improve reliability and control costs.
Chemicals and the Economy
It’s our 17th birthday – and the world is looking very different from when we started
The two super-critical ‘dividends’ of the past 30 years are now reversing. The ‘demographic dividend’ of constant growth and low inflation created by the baby boom generation has ended, along with the ‘peace dividend’ created by the end of the Cold War in 1989
OPEC+ starts to refocus on market share as demand growth weakens
OPEC would have been better advised to keep prices low to reduce non-OPEC supply. Instead, they are likely to face some difficult pricing decisions later in the year, if global growth continues to slow.
Chemical prices start to slide in Asia and Europe, as summer slowdown starts early
Geopolitics are starting to fragment the global economy again. Economics are no longer the key driver for decisions. And so we need to refocus on the geopolitical risks ahead.
China’s housing market moves from boom to bust
China’s housing inventory is now at a record 25 months. Prices/demand continue to fall. And local government land sale income has already fallen 1/3rd since 2021 to $800 billion, with a further 10% fall to expected this year. And so now services are having to be cut.
Smartphone sales continue to slow as consumer demand patterns change
Q1 data showed that many consumers are tightening their belts and focusing on value for money. But investors don’t yet seem to have noticed, and are bidding up Apple’s share price to euphoric levels.
Currency wars kick off as Japanese yen tumbles close to 38-year low
This is the 3rd time we have forewarned of an approaching crisis. Both previous times, ahead of the Great Financial Crisis and the Covid pandemic, we were told we “didn’t know what we were talking about”. Let’s hope its “3rd time lucky” and that “this time is different”.
“Gradually, then Suddenly” – Hemingway’s insight starts to apply to the New Normal’s arrival
As Hemingway noted, everyone is your friend when things are going well. But as countries and individuals are now starting to discover, the hangover when the party ends can be a painful experience.
US and EU prepare for trade war with China on Electric Vehicles as auto demand patterns change
The world is now moving from today’s “Continuous Instability” into “Growing Disruption”. Real wars are already escalating in Europe and the Middle East. Trade wars are beginning. And Demand Patterns in key industries such as autos are starting to change very rapidly.
US Treasury Secretaries change their minds on trade and inflation policies
Policymakers in the West and the East now find themselves adrift in increasingly stormy seas, without a compass. Their 2 key policy tools on trade and inflation have proved to be wrong. New thinking on the role of central banks is urgently required.
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