We are now two-thirds of the way through 2014, and critical decisions are looming for companies and investors. Do they give central banks one more chance to stimulate growth? And are they prepared to trust policymakers to avoid a major geopolitical crisis in the Ukraine? Or do they decide that ‘enough is enough’, and that […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Oil consumption growth has slowed as prices have stayed high
As promised yesterday, the blog looks today at the impact of today’s high prices on oil consumption growth. As the chart, based on BP data shows, the ‘easy money’ policies of the central banks have only partially mitigated the impact of the oil price rally since 2009. Consumption growth has not fallen to the 0.8%/year level […]
“None so blind, as those that will not see?”
Every now and then, the blog scratches its head and wonders, “what would it take to convince US policymakers that demographics have an influence on demand?” Suppose, for example, they loudly and consistently announced that the US was now in full recovery mode, and would be certain to achieve economic growth of 3% or more? And that then, growth […]
Consumer demand patterns change as Boomers return to cities
The ageing BabyBoomers are now leaving the suburbs in large numbers, and moving back to the cities, as the blog discussed in October. Thus as the Wall Street Journal reports, housing needs are changing quite dramatically. The main growth area for housing is now in high-rise apartment towers built for rent: “The growth in new rental […]
“US population is aging: older people tend to consume and spend less”
Its not just the UK that is seeing an earthquake taking place in consumer demand patterns, as the blog discussed last week. The same earthquake is taking place in the world’s largest consumer market, the USA. As the Wall Street Journal reports: “For the past three years running, unit sales of consumer products have been […]
A New Year resolution
Do you recognise any of these women? Pictured in an excellent Financial Times article they are (left to right), New York Style icon Iris Apfel; model and actress Marisa Berenson; model and actress Lauren Hutton; fashion designer Jenny Kee; actress Meryl Streep. Nothing difficult about that you may say – even if, like the blog, you remember […]
Benzene challenges financial markets’ rosy view of the outlook
This is Budget week, when the blog prepares to present its Budget Outlook for 2014-16. On Saturday, it reviewed its 2012 forecast. And starting tomorrow, it will analyse auto markets – as these are the largest single driver of demand – before issuing its 2014 Outlook next Saturday. The chart above presents the dilemma facing companies, […]
Markets in wait-and-see mode as holiday season arrives
Markets have moved into summer holiday mode in recent weeks whilst they wait for a new direction, as the chart shows. It is therefore timely to look back over developments since the start of the year: The S&P 500 (purple) has been the clear winner, up 15%. The key to its out-performance has been the central […]
US consumer sentiment confirms Boom/Gloom Index weakness
It is now 4 years since the blog launched its IeC Boom/Gloom Index, as a way of measuring the difference between sentiment and economic reality. Its purpose then was as follows: “Markets are driven by two factors, sentiment and fundamentals: • Fundamentals can be followed by analysing hard data. In chemical markets, for example, key […]
US job numbers still below 2008 levels
The US jobs market remains very fragile. That seems to be the key message from last week’s monthly job statistics. And, of course, if jobs are hard to get, then consumer spending and GDP will remain weak. The chart shows the monthly jobs trend since 2008: • The number of jobs dived to 134.4m by […]
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