Europe has been built through crisis since the end of World War 2. Today’s economic and political crises require a similar focus on reinvention.
Chemicals and the Economy
Trump’s tariff war confirms geopolitics are replacing economics as the key driver for decisions
The Perennials 55+ cohort have replaced babies as the main source of US population growth since 2005. They already own most of what they need. So the need for globalisation has disappeared. As Trump and Musk are suggesting, a period of rapid and uncomfortable change now seems to lie ahead.
Deflation risks rise as OPEC aims to regain market share and cut oil prices
Oil market developments need very careful attention. If prices do now fall below $50/bbl, then central banks will likely rush to make major cuts in interest rates. And that will make deflation even more likely.
China’s economy risks heading into recession as Producer Prices enter deflation
China’s problems are spreading to the rest of the world. Not only is it exporting deflation, as its Producer Prices fall. But also, and understandably, consumer countries are introducing trade barriers to protect their own industries
OPEC+ starts to refocus on market share as demand growth weakens
OPEC would have been better advised to keep prices low to reduce non-OPEC supply. Instead, they are likely to face some difficult pricing decisions later in the year, if global growth continues to slow.
Chemical prices start to slide in Asia and Europe, as summer slowdown starts early
Geopolitics are starting to fragment the global economy again. Economics are no longer the key driver for decisions. And so we need to refocus on the geopolitical risks ahead.
Middle-Income countries face a real risk of “growing old before they become rich”
China and most Middle-Income countries seem destined to grow old before they become rich. As Pew Foundation data shows, China had just 23m people who earned more than $50/day in $2011. India has only 2m.
Asia’s debt crisis edges nearer, as Japan’s interest rates rise and China’s property bubble bursts
Bubbles are great fun while they last. But they are much less fun when they burst. For the past 20 years, central bank stimulus has created some of the largest bubbles ever seen. But now, led by developments in Japan and China, they are bursting
Europe’s chemicals market highlights move into recession, and risk of future deflation
The chemical industry is now starting to warn us of a new risk. Europe is already suffering from a cost of living crisis. And people simply can’t afford to pay even higher prices for energy. At a certain point, therefore, demand may simply collapse, and usher in deflation
The blog’s 15th birthday – and the chemical industry remains the best leading indicator for the global economy
The US is moving into recession as the Atlanta Fed chart confirms. Chemicals have been warning of this for some time. But policymakers and commentators remain in Denial about the economy. They prefer to focus on their computer models, and ignore the real world outside their window.
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