Europe faces major geopolitical threats. In the East, the EU faces an existential challenges from Russia’s Ukraine invasion and its “no limits” partnership with China. In the West, there is rising uncertainty over Donald Trump’s support for Europe if he became president
Chemicals and the Economy
The stock market bubble starts to burst
Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.
Industry now needs to step up, if Net Zero is to be achieved
Net Zero is clearly the key issue of our time. With COP26 about to start, 3 key elements need to come together to ensure success. Political leaders have to agree to meet the Net Zero targets, and to provide $100bn/year to help poorer nations fund the changes needed. But nothing will happen on the ground […]
The blog’s 14th birthday – and the New Normal world it predicted has arrived
The blog has now been running for 14 years since the first post was written from Thailand at the end of June 2007. And quite a lot has happened since then: There was the 2008 financial crisis, one of the blog’s early forecasting successes This led to the publication of ‘Boom, Gloom and the New […]
Competence starts to replace charisma as a key factor in politics as the pandemic continues
The appalling tragedy in India reminds us that the Covid pandemic is very far from being solved. And more generally, the latest Ipsos ‘What worries the world’ global poll shows high levels of concern over unemployment, inequality, corruption and crime. 2/3rds of people think their country is heading on the wrong track: Pandemic concerns continue […]
US chemical companies face ‘wake-up call’ as Biden focuses on the Climate Change agenda
I worked for many years at a world-leading chemical company, ICI. But sadly, it lost its way as senior management began to focus more on financial metrics than market developments. In 2007, it disappeared. Today, other companies including the once-mighty ExxonMobil risk making similar mistakes: EM was the world’s most valuable company just 9 years ago It […]
OPEC set to lose out as Biden, EU and China focus on Climate Change opportunities
OPEC used to dominate global oil markets. In the early 1980s, there was even talk of another OPEC cartel to control gas prices. But those days are long gone. Instead OPEC members such as the UAE are increasingly aware they have only a limited time left to monetise their vast reserves of fossil fuels. This is […]
If you don’t want to know the future, look away now
Next week, I will publish my annual Budget Outlook, covering the 2021-2023 period. It will highlight how the pandemic is accelerating major paradigm shifts in society, politics and the global economy. I have been publishing these Outlooks since 2007, and they disprove the idea that forecasting is a waste of time. They highlight instead that […]
What will happen if President Trump loses the election?
I spent from September 2015 onwards, during the last US Presidential election, trying to explain why Donald Trump was likely to win. As I noted after the event in November 2016: “It really wasn’t very difficult to see that Donald Trump could win the White House, and that the Republicans could control Congress, for the […]
“They may ring their bells now, before long they will be wringing their hands”
The wisdom of Sir Robert Walpole, the UK’s first premier, seems the only possible response to this weekend’s headline from the Wall Street Journal. How can a National Emergency ever be the basis for a major rise in stock markets? Of course, we all know that stock markets have become addicted to stimulus. But the […]
Jump to page: