Global markets are becoming ever more complex as the Great Reckoning for the failure of stimulus policies continues. This means that each blog post is now taking much longer to write. It therefore seems sensible to focus on writing 2 posts each week – on Monday and Thursday – in order to continue to provide […]
Chemicals and the Economy
The blog in 2016
2016 saw the Great Reckoning for the failure of stimulus policies begin to impact companies and markets. The blog’s readership has increased significantly as a a result, as shown in the chart above, with its visits now totaling nearly 500k. Its readership includes 197 countries and over 11k cities. Readers also remain very loyal, with […]
2016’s Word of the Year: “Impossible”
Nobody likes change, particularly on the scale that is taking place all around us today. Understandably, we prefer to live in a state of Denial. This is why “Impossible” is my Word of the Year for 2016. The main feature of the word is that it is a statement, and a very clear statement. People […]
Chemical industry flags rising risk of global recession in 2017, with Trump set to “clear the decks” at the start of his first term
The chemical industry is the best leading indicator that we have for the global economy. It has an excellent correlation with IMF data, and also benefits from the fact it has no “political bias”. It simply tells us what is happening in real-time in the world’s 3rd largest industry. Sadly, the news is not good. […]
Industry needs new strategy to spread benefits of globalisation
The Brexit vote, and Donald Trump’s election, confirm that we are in a New Normal world. In the interview below with Will Beacham, Deputy editor of ICIS Chemical Business, I highlight some ideas about how industry needs to adapt. BARCELONA (ICIS)–The global chemical sector needs to stimulate demand for innovative products and services in mature […]
Trump’s ‘100-day plan’ means an end to “Business as usual”
‘There are none so blind as those who will not see. The most deluded people are those who choose to ignore what they already know’ John Heywood, 1546 “When Aetna ran through post-election expectations, the idea that Donald J. Trump would win the presidency and that Republicans would control both chambers of Congress seemed so […]
Political risk rises as voters feel only the populists are listening
This week, the new UK premier, Theresa May, highlighted how the central banks have encouraged the populists’ rise: “We have to acknowledge some of the bad side-effects. People with assets have got richer, people without have not.” The problem, of course, goes wider than this. The continuing failure to recover from the 2008 Financial Crisis […]
Markets struggle with political risk as populist momentum gains
Markets have forgotten how to price political uncertainty in recent decades, as I discussed on Monday. They have become dependent on central bank handouts, and assumed that globalisation and trade agreements are permanent features of the economic landscape. Today, they are having to relearn, very quickly, what has been forgotten. My post a year ago […]
Political risk and total debt rise as US GDP disappoints, again
Its déjà vu all over again for the US economy. Friday’s news of Q2’s weak US GDP growth only confirmed the August 2014 comment by Stanley Fischer, then just appointed deputy Chairman of the US Federal Reserve: “Year after year we have had to explain from mid-year on why the global growth rate has been lower […]
Central banks head for currency wars as growth policies fail
The world’s central bankers would have been sacked long ago if they were CEOs running companies. They would also have been voted out, if they were elected officials. Not only have they failed to achieve their promised objectives – constant growth and 2% inflation – they have kept failing to achieve them since the Crisis […]
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