Major problems are developing in the US auto market. The critical issue is that companies have been adding capacity since 2009 on the basis that demand would return to SuperCycle levels. But it hasn’t. The result is that the mass market has become more and more competitive. Only sales into the high margin luxury/pickup segments are actually […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Russian downturn causes GM, Ford U-turn; EU slows despite discounts
August is a holiday month for Europe’s statisticians. So we had to wait until yesterday for a combined summary of July and August’s EU auto sales. As the chart shows, they indicate a new slowdown is underway after the more encouraging volumes at the start of the year: Sales were up only 5.6% in July and 2.1% in August (red square), […]
Price war looms in US auto market as incentives increase
The blog is awarding itself a pat on the back this morning, as its forecast last month for the US auto market seems to have proved more accurate than those of the experts. Under the heading ‘US automakers increase incentives as sales fail to boom’, it forecast: “The blog therefore suspects that March will be […]
US automakers increase incentives as sales fail to boom
This month is likely to be a very good time to buy a new car in the US. The reason is that auto manufacturers had believed that a recovery in consumer spending and the economy had become inevitable. Thus they had built inventories of new cars in anticipation of the sales rush. These are now […]
Brazil, Russia, India car sales fall for first time in 10 years
Since 2009, the 4 BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China) have been the focus of every car manufacturers’ dreams. Whilst the West worried about ageing populations and its financial crisis, the BRICs seemed to have moved into a new dimension. Today, however, reality is beginning to set in: Auto sales in Brazil (the world’s […]
US auto buyers head for fuel efficiency
Every now and then, genuinely good news comes along in terms of consumer demand. Today is one of those days. As the chart above shows, US auto sales in March (red square) were the highest monthly total since March 2007. They also followed relatively strong sales figures for February, which adds to the good news. […]
US auto sales continue to disappoint
One characteristic of recessions is that recovery is always ‘just around the corner’. We can see this pattern in today’s US auto market. Since 2009, forecasters have been convinced that sales will quickly return to Supercycle levels of 15-17 million/year. But sadly, by around this time of year, it has become clear that nothing has […]
Chrysler warns of China threat
Chrysler CEO, Sergio Marchionne, has issued a wake-up call to Western auto companies about the growth of China’s exports. He warns that they “can’t count on dramatic growth in Asia to drive prosperity“, and suggests that China’s plans to increase auto exports pose an “enormous” risk. Meanwhile, US auto sales disappointed again in July. As […]
US auto sales disappoint, again
Time was when US auto sales only rarely dipped below 1.1 million/month. Since the Great Recession began, however, they have only rarely been above this level. Analysts are yet to take this change on board. So June’s 1.05 million figure (red square) was described as a ‘surprise’. Yet as the chart shows, most months this […]
US auto buyers shift towards the New Normal
US auto sales remained stable last month. As the chart shows (red line), they were just above the 1.1 million level. Until the Crisis began in 2008, this was the minimum level for monthly sales, but now it seems to have become more of a maximum. Beneath the surface, some other significant changes are underway: […]
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