Changes in US housing values continue to exert a larger and more important impact upon household consumption than do changes in stock market values“. That’s the conclusion of an important new study by the developers of the main S&P Case-Shiller US House price index. The chart above, based on US Census Bureau data, shows the […]
Chemicals and the Economy
China has “60% risk of banking crisis by 2013”
China’s housing market seems to be facing the threat of a major downturn. That is the only conclusion to be drawn from the rising sense of concern being expressed by policymakers and the official media. Last year, China’s Academy of Social Sciences estimated that “there are 64.5 million empty apartments and houses in China’s urban […]
China battles food and house price inflation
When China announced that inflation had reached 5.1% in November, the authorities insisted it was only a temporary peak. But this seems less likely today, with January’s inflation still at 4.9%. The surge in food prices is very worrying. They jumped 10.3%. And with a major drought underway in the North East, there is a […]
Housing markets remain uncertain
The blog’s special series this week has focused on housing in 3 key markets – the USA, UK and China. Housing is a core sector for chemical and polymer demand, and it has been particularly important over the past 30 years: • The Western BabyBoomers (those born between 1946-70) have been in the 25 – […]
China seeks ‘soft landing’ for house prices
Housing’s share of China’s GDP has tripled over the past decade to 6%. This, of course, has stimulated demand for chemical and polymers. But as the Bloomberg chart shows, it is also worryingly close (blue line) to the peaks seen in the USA (black line) and, before then, Japan (dotted line). The rise has been […]
UK house prices slip in H2
UK housing markets followed the US lead in recent decades. Conservative and Labour governments both shared a belief in extending property ownership as widely as possible. But what neither foresaw was the ‘unintended consequence’. Their policy of boosting home ownership coincided with the entry of the BabyBoom generation (those born between 1946-70) into the 25 […]
US housing markets remain depressed
There was much discussion in the popular media of a possible US housing market upturn, during the blog’s visit last week. It was based on news of a 17% rise in building permits during December, often a leading indicator of future demand. But as the above chart shows, from the American Chemical Council’s weekly report, […]
China’s economy ends 2010 at new highs
China’s economy ended 2010 on yet another high. As the chart shows, bank lending (red column) and electricity consumption (blue line), remained very strong: • Electricity usage was up 15% in 2010 versus 2009 • Bank lending was RMB 7.9trn ($1.2trn), above the RMB 7.5trn target The change since the start of the Crisis is […]
China’s women believe housing essential for marriage
70% of China’s women regard “housing, a stable income and some savings” as vital for any man wanting to get married. And they probably don’t regard architect Dai Haifei’s $300 Beijing ‘egg house’ (pictured) as their ideal. The data comes from the “2010 China Marital Status Report“, which adds that the man’s personality and morals […]
China’s interest rates “have to go up more” – World Bank
What happens if you suddenly double bank lending in a country, and make it equal to 1/3rd of total GDP? And, as part of the experiment, add a further 13% of GDP via a $580bn stimulus programme? We don’t know yet, because it has never been done before. But we are about to find out. […]
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