Europe is also in the midst of what is forecast to be its coldest winter since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with the continent already dipping deeper than usual into gas storage as temperatures plummet.
Chemicals and the Economy
Europe’s economy loses its “engine”, as France follows Germany into political turmoil
Europe has been built through crisis since the end of World War 2. Today’s economic and political crises require a similar focus on reinvention.
Smartphone markets could see major changes as Trump rolls out his tariffs
The world’s most successful investor, Warren Buffett, has been selling his shares. Apple was once half of his equity portfolio. But over the past year, he has sold 2/3rds of his holding. And Buffett doesn’t normally sell shares when he thinks the company will do well.
The polls may be close, but normal ‘polling error’ means Harris or Trump could still win by a landslide
Voter enthusiasm is usually key to election victory. And it is clear that Trump’s focus on immigration is enthusing many voters. But logic suggests that Kamala Harris’ focus on women’s reproductive rights makes her best placed to win, potentially with a larger majority than the polls suggest.
Deflation risks rise as OPEC aims to regain market share and cut oil prices
Oil market developments need very careful attention. If prices do now fall below $50/bbl, then central banks will likely rush to make major cuts in interest rates. And that will make deflation even more likely.
Oil prices head into a warning triangle again
OPEC+ countries have been playing the geopolitical card for the past 2 years. But their output cuts have allowed US producers to gain market share, with production up 1.2mbd. The hurricane season may support prices for a while. But the risks are all to the downside.
European voters rally to the centre as external threats increase
Europe faces major geopolitical threats. In the East, the EU faces an existential challenges from Russia’s Ukraine invasion and its “no limits” partnership with China. In the West, there is rising uncertainty over Donald Trump’s support for Europe if he became president
The time for action to protect European chemicals is now
The critical test is now ahead – making it happen. Companies, investors and policymakers need to borrow Winston Churchill’s famous motto, “Action this Day”. As Sir Jim Ratcliffe has highlighted, the penalty for doing nothing will be closure.
Hurricanes and Houthis pressure global supply chains and add to inflation risk
The Houthi attacks and increased hurricane risks highlight how geopolitics are replacing economics as the key driver for decisions. Global supply chains are increasingly being replaced by local-for-local operations as producers aim to improve reliability and control costs.
Chemical prices start to slide in Asia and Europe, as summer slowdown starts early
Geopolitics are starting to fragment the global economy again. Economics are no longer the key driver for decisions. And so we need to refocus on the geopolitical risks ahead.
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