Geopolitics are starting to fragment the global economy again. Economics are no longer the key driver for decisions. And so we need to refocus on the geopolitical risks ahead.
Chemicals and the Economy
Currency wars kick off as Japanese yen tumbles close to 38-year low
This is the 3rd time we have forewarned of an approaching crisis. Both previous times, ahead of the Great Financial Crisis and the Covid pandemic, we were told we “didn’t know what we were talking about”. Let’s hope its “3rd time lucky” and that “this time is different”.
“Gradually, then Suddenly” – Hemingway’s insight starts to apply to the New Normal’s arrival
As Hemingway noted, everyone is your friend when things are going well. But as countries and individuals are now starting to discover, the hangover when the party ends can be a painful experience.
US Treasury Secretaries change their minds on trade and inflation policies
Policymakers in the West and the East now find themselves adrift in increasingly stormy seas, without a compass. Their 2 key policy tools on trade and inflation have proved to be wrong. New thinking on the role of central banks is urgently required.
Rethinking, repositioning and restructuring are now essential for industry survival
Resilience requires companies to refocus downstream and diversify their portfolio. They also need to be clear about the value proposition for their target market – are they providing Value, or Luxury? Rethinking, repositioning and restructuring are now all key to survival and future profit.
Time for a new set of business models as the peace and demographic “dividends” become deficits again
The next few years are therefore likely to be very different from anything that we have known in our working lives. Scenario planning is therefore essential in the face of this uncertainty.
US interest rate rises start to threaten the housing market bubble
Most Americans can’t qualify for a mortgage today with prices and interest rates at generation-highs. Yet housing starts average a post-2007 record of 1.5m/month. Logic therefore suggests the US housing market could be heading for a repeat of the 2008 crisis
Asia’s debt crisis edges nearer, as Japan’s interest rates rise and China’s property bubble bursts
Bubbles are great fun while they last. But they are much less fun when they burst. For the past 20 years, central bank stimulus has created some of the largest bubbles ever seen. But now, led by developments in Japan and China, they are bursting
Europe’s chemicals market highlights move into recession, and risk of future deflation
The chemical industry is now starting to warn us of a new risk. Europe is already suffering from a cost of living crisis. And people simply can’t afford to pay even higher prices for energy. At a certain point, therefore, demand may simply collapse, and usher in deflation
Chemicals, financial markets reach a fork in the road
A whole generation has grown up with the idea that rates are always close to zero. And they also “know” that central banks will always print more money if needed.
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