US subprime lending was the starting point for the economic crisis now spreading around the world. The blog believes a key cause was policymakers refusal to accept that the ageing of the BabyBoomers (those born between 1946-70) would cause a major change in demand patterns. Instead, they have continued to believe that underlying levels of […]
Chemicals and the Economy
When I’m 64
Will you still need me? Will you still feed me? The Beatles asked the right questions back in 1967, when singing ‘When I’m Sixty-Four’ on their iconic Sergeant Pepper album. What would happen to the Western BabyBoomers when they became 64? Would they be about to die, as had previous generations? Or would their future […]
Budgeting and the New Normal
Companies are now starting the Budget process for 2012-14. As always, the blog will present its own view next month. It will also review last year’s Budget Outlook, presciently titled ‘Budgeting for Uncertainty’. In the meantime, companies might like to use its recent ‘The world in 2021′ as a way of challenging their own thinking […]
The blog in the Financial Times today
The Financial Times kindly prints a letter from the blog today, under the headline “The golden age of the baby boomers is gone – for ever“. It summarises the key ideas in its new eBook, Boom, Gloom and the New Normal, co-authored with John Richardson. Coincidentally, it appears 4 years after the blog’s famous letter […]
August highlights
Many readers have been taking a well-earned break over the past few weeks. The blog also continues to gain large numbers of new readers, as the financial crisis intensifies. As usual, therefore, it is highlighting key posts during August, to help you catch up as you return to the office. Boom/Gloom Index suggests markets on […]
Boom, Gloom and the New Normal goes mainstream
Readers will no doubt be pleased to see that Bloomberg have today published a major article on the likely changes in demand patterns due to the ageing of the Western babyboomers. Its title, ‘Aging Baby Boomers Shrinking Labor Force May Curb U.S. Growth for 20 Years’, emphasises the parallels it makes with our analysis in […]
The New Normal World in 2021
All of us would love to be able to see into the future. Chapter 4 of our new free eBook, ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal’, does just this. It offers 10 predictions about how the world will look in 2021: 1. Young and old will be focused on ‘needs’ rather than ‘wants’. 2. A […]
Towards a New Normal, not a new Supercycle
The blog was in a minority of one when it launched its IeC Downturn Alert at the end of April. But today, only a very few diehard optimists are still arguing the issue. GDP reports in Europe and the USA have shown virtually no growth in Q2, whilst China is clearly also slowing fast. It […]
Investors rush to save with the JUUGS
Most of us have now heard of the PIIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain). They are the ones causing the Eurozone debt crisis. Today, the blog introduces the JUUGS (Japan, UK, USA, Germany, Switzerland). These are the major countries that investors now love. If you are worried about return of capital, rather than return […]
Bayer and Shell to speak at Amsterdam Conference
We have another strong speaker line-up for our 10th European Aromatics & Derivatives conference on 22-23 November in Amsterdam, co-organised as usual with ICIS. Patrick Thomas, CEO of Bayer Material Science, will talk about the outlook from the viewpoint of a major global aromatics consumer. Alexander Farina, GM strategy for Shell Chemicals, will give his […]
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