Taylor Swift’s concerts are creating massive short-term demand as people reconnect after lockdowns. But the chemical industry is warning that deflation could be round the corner, due to the over-capacity created by 20 years of stimulus
Chemicals and the Economy
Bond yields start to go back to the future as stimulus policies unwind
Central banks have spent 15 years telling us that debt and demographics “don’t matter”. They claimed they could always create demand via stimulus. But now the policy has run out of road. Homeowners and stock traders who thought rates would stay low forever, will be the ones to suffer
It’s our 16th birthday – and the chemical industry remains the best leading indicator for the global economy
The Ukraine war highlights how the real world can often be a very messy place. Issues such as geopolitics and demographics aren’t easy to understand. It can be hard to understand the detail of how key industries and markets are operating.
So it’s no surprise that most policymakers have preferred to stay in the world of theory.
“Houston, we have a problem” – China’s move to self-sufficiency a game-changer for the plastics industry
Essentially, China’s move to self-sufficiency, and the need to deal with the issue of plastic waste, means there is no ‘business as usual’ option. Winners and Losers are already starting to emerge, as companies react to the challenges of today’s New Normal world.
An Asian debt crisis would shake the global economy, now the ‘Presidential Cycle’ effect is over
The Presidential Cycle is now over. Instead, worries about the recession and the US debt ceiling talks are moving centre-stage. But Asian currency markets are sending a warning signal. A rising US dollar and US interest rates, and a falling yen and yuan, could soon raise the risks of a major Asian debt crisis.
Plastics industry reaches ‘make up your mind time’ on recycling and single-use products
Doing nothing is no longer an option. The plastics industry has a game-changing opportunity to take a global lead in developing a circular economy. It now needs to focus on developing the new products and services needed to create the new business model.
Recycling can secure the future for US chemical companies
We have reached the endgame for today’s business models. Management teams need to start thinking ‘out of the box’ and develop new business models and strategies for the New Normal world.
Its ‘Minsky Moment’ time again as investors start to worry about return of capital
“You can’t run the most reckless monetary and fiscal experiment in history without the bill eventually coming due. The first invoice arrived as inflation. The second has come as a financial panic, with economic damage that may not end with Silicon Valley Bank.”
Today’s financial crisis confirms that “failing to plan, equals planning to fail”
Companies and investors need to invest time now on having a genuine debate about the risks ahead. The regulatory failures of the past few days highlight what can quickly go wrong, if one hasn’t war-gamed out potential risks. As the saying goes, “Failing to plan, equals planning to fail”.
Clean energy set to squeeze fossil fuel demand as ‘the electrification of everything’ continues
Portugal is showing the way. Despite 6 months of drought last year, 57% of its electricity came from renewables. And its clean energy focus means it is becoming “one of the cheapest markets in Europe”. CO2 emissions will also have reduced by 75% in 2030 versus 2021.
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