As the photos from New York in 1900 and 1913 remind us, transitions happen very quickly once they get underway. One day, we are saying “it will never happen”. The next, we are telling our friends “I can’t understand why it took so long”. So it seems safe to assume that the auto industry will see major change in the next few years.
Chemicals and the Economy
Plastics recycling starts to take off, and potential Winners & Losers emerge
Russia’s invasion has dramatically accelerated the need to transition from fossil fuels to renewables, and from single-use plastics to recycled product. In turn, this will create Winners & Losers. Some companies will decide to take advantage of the new opportunity. Others will continue to hope the issue will go away.
Japan’s premier warns of “social dysfunction” as ageing populations challenge Western and Chinese economies
Japan has wasted trillions of yen with its failed stimulus programmes. Had it devoted even a tenth of this money to developing a proper Retraining programme for people in their 50s/60s, it wouldn’t now be facing a major debt and currency crisis. The rest of the Western world needs to rapidly learn from its mistake.
Global auto fleet goes electric as “the electrification of everything” begins
The ‘digitalization of everything’ has transformed the global economy over the past 30 years. The rise of the internet is just one example. Now electrification is set to have a similar impact, starting with the world’s largest manufacturing industry. Fasten your seatbelts for the ride!
The end of stimulus, and the growing importance of demographics, means the economy could face a major downturn
‘Business as usual’ has been a great strategy for the past 40 years. But nothing lasts forever. It has now – like the central banks’ stimulus policies – hit the inevitable brick wall.
Chart of the Year – Our Sentiment Index proved a great guide to the S&P 500 in 2022
Nobody knows how markets will develop. But past performance is the best guide that we have. This is why our Sentiment Index is my Chart of the year for 2022.
Break glass in case of emergency – the 2023 outlook for the economy
Please join me for my free ACS webinar on Thursday, December 15, 2022 @ 2-3pm ET.
China has locked down again. Yet World Cup TV shows people that the rest of the world is back to normal. And the real estate bubble (29% of GDP) continues to burst
The World Cup runs till December 18. That’s a long time for Chinese viewers to ask themselves “Why am I still locked down, when the rest of the world is living a normal life again”? And in the background, the real estate bubble continues to burst.
Wall Street finally recognises a recession is underway – “It’s a hurricane…coming our way”
There are positives in all this, as the Green agenda will create new opportunities to replace those that are now disappearing. But for the moment, at least, the risks associated with a likely lengthy and deep recession are likely to dominate. Please be careful out there.
Prepare for a K-shaped recession with Winners & Losers
This is why we are facing a K-shaped recession. Companies and investors have a difficult time ahead. They not only have to navigate a potentially major downturn. But they also have to completely reposition their portfolios for the New Normal world that will follow.
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