Europe faces major geopolitical threats. In the East, the EU faces an existential challenges from Russia’s Ukraine invasion and its “no limits” partnership with China. In the West, there is rising uncertainty over Donald Trump’s support for Europe if he became president
Chemicals and the Economy
The time for action to protect European chemicals is now
The critical test is now ahead – making it happen. Companies, investors and policymakers need to borrow Winston Churchill’s famous motto, “Action this Day”. As Sir Jim Ratcliffe has highlighted, the penalty for doing nothing will be closure.
Hurricanes and Houthis pressure global supply chains and add to inflation risk
The Houthi attacks and increased hurricane risks highlight how geopolitics are replacing economics as the key driver for decisions. Global supply chains are increasingly being replaced by local-for-local operations as producers aim to improve reliability and control costs.
It’s our 17th birthday – and the world is looking very different from when we started
The two super-critical ‘dividends’ of the past 30 years are now reversing. The ‘demographic dividend’ of constant growth and low inflation created by the baby boom generation has ended, along with the ‘peace dividend’ created by the end of the Cold War in 1989
‘Car Wars’ begin as US, EU and Turkey impose duties on Chinese electric vehicles
Europe and the USA are unlikely to handover the EV market to China. And so today’s Car Wars may well led to further tariffs on both sides.
The next few years could well be a bumpy ride for anyone involved in the auto industry and its supply chains.
Oil and financial markets start to wake up to geopolitical reality
The oil price has rallied 22% over the past 4 months, since it bottomed at $74/bbl. And slowly but surely, traders are being forced to realise that geopolitics are replacing economics as the key driver for world markets.
Risks mount for US ethylene exports
Future Winners in today’s New Normal world will be those companies that realise that the key question is no longer, “Do we have low-cost supply?” It is instead “Do we have a customer who is willing and able to buy from us”.
Gasoline/diesel cars are now less than 50% of European sales as EVs and hybrids surge
These paradigm shifts are coming at the same time as the loss of the peace and demographic dividends. They are taking our world in a new direction. The likely Winners will be those companies and investors who focus on becoming demand-led.
OPEC struggles with lower demand as the war accelerates the move to renewables
The good news for consumers is that the move to renewables is already set to save European consumers €100bn in 2021-23. The technologies needed in terms of wind, water, solar and storage can successfully deliver the cheaper and more reliable energy supply needed to support the global economy.
Prepare for the coming crisis
As the head of Germany’s Employers’ Associations warned last month: “We are facing the biggest crisis the post-war Federal Republic has ever had. We have to be honest and say: First of all, we will lose the prosperity that we have had for years”.
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