The world’s most successful investor, Warren Buffett, has been selling his shares. Apple was once half of his equity portfolio. But over the past year, he has sold 2/3rds of his holding. And Buffett doesn’t normally sell shares when he thinks the company will do well.
Chemicals and the Economy
Deflation risks rise as OPEC aims to regain market share and cut oil prices
Oil market developments need very careful attention. If prices do now fall below $50/bbl, then central banks will likely rush to make major cuts in interest rates. And that will make deflation even more likely.
China’s economy risks heading into recession as Producer Prices enter deflation
China’s problems are spreading to the rest of the world. Not only is it exporting deflation, as its Producer Prices fall. But also, and understandably, consumer countries are introducing trade barriers to protect their own industries
The time for action to protect European chemicals is now
The critical test is now ahead – making it happen. Companies, investors and policymakers need to borrow Winston Churchill’s famous motto, “Action this Day”. As Sir Jim Ratcliffe has highlighted, the penalty for doing nothing will be closure.
Hurricanes and Houthis pressure global supply chains and add to inflation risk
The Houthi attacks and increased hurricane risks highlight how geopolitics are replacing economics as the key driver for decisions. Global supply chains are increasingly being replaced by local-for-local operations as producers aim to improve reliability and control costs.
OPEC+ starts to refocus on market share as demand growth weakens
OPEC would have been better advised to keep prices low to reduce non-OPEC supply. Instead, they are likely to face some difficult pricing decisions later in the year, if global growth continues to slow.
Chemical prices start to slide in Asia and Europe, as summer slowdown starts early
Geopolitics are starting to fragment the global economy again. Economics are no longer the key driver for decisions. And so we need to refocus on the geopolitical risks ahead.
Demographics are destiny: today’s ageing populations creating “replacement economy”
Demographics are taking demand patterns in completely new directions. Sustaining future growth now depends on successfully developing and implementing new policies, focused on the opportunities offered by the emergence of the Perennials 55+ cohort. Demographics are taking demand patterns in completely new directions. Sustaining future growth now depends on successfully developing and implementing new policies, focused on the opportunities offered by the emergence of the Perennials 55+ cohort.
Demographics are destiny for the global economy, as central banks start to realise
For the past 15 years, since the Global Financial Crisis, central banks have claimed they could generate demand and economic growth via stimulus. Some $73tn of spending later, it is finally becoming clear to some of them, at least, that they can’t.
Now, we all have to start picking up the pieces of the problems they have created.
Investors hope (again) for interest rate cuts and a ‘Santa Claus rally’
investors are hoping Fed Chairman Jay Powell will soon signal a dramatic interest rate cut. And so they are positioning for a ‘Santa Claus’ rally. But most adults know that Santa Claus doesn’t really exist.
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