The auto industry is a major source of global chemical demand. Today, at the half-year point, the blog begins a 3-part series analysing auto sales trends in Europe (today), China (tomorrow) and total EU, China and USA sales (Thursday). Click here for current USA analysis. For the past few months, Europe has seen a two-tier […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Feldstein warns of potential for new US recession
There is worrying evidence that the US may be close to recession. This may seem unlikely to those who have only known the world of the past 25 years. Between 1982-2007, US recessions were very rare. They took place just 5% of the time, as the wealthy Western BabyBoomers led to a SuperCycle of ‘pent-up […]
Budgeting for Uncertainty
When elephants fight, those around them need to be cautious. And this is the prospect for 2011-13, as the Western countries try to force the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) to export less and import more, the so-called ‘rebalancing’ strategy. Thus Budgeting for Uncertainty seems the right title for the blog’s annual Outlook for […]
Fear of Austerity replaces hopes of Green Shoots
A year ago, the blog launched its IeC Boom/Gloom Index. This was based on the concept that markets are driven by both sentiment and fundamentals. And whilst fundamentals can be understood by analysing hard data (eg auto sales, housing starts), it is equally important to understand sentiment, and what markets think will happen next. Analysing […]
World trade falls in line with Great Depression trend
Last June, the blog noted research by Profs Eichengreen and O’Rourke that compared the current Crisis to the Great Depression. They have now updated their work to February 2010, 22 months after the Crisis began. The positive news is that the stimulus measures taken by governments have caused world industrial production to recover. As they […]
Anger takes centre stage at bankers’ $65bn bonuses
Iceland, “the first country to be run like a hedge fund“, was the original warning sign of the current financial crisis. Today’s chaos in the country, following its rejection of the €4bn bank compensation deal agreed with the UK and The Netherlands, may similarly prove to be the fore-runner of the next stage in the […]
Chemical company CEOs need to act on high oil prices
Pity your poor Purchasing Director this week. They know the West is having a cold winter, but they have done their analysis and can show you slides, such as the one above from Petromatrix, that indicate the US has the highest stocks of distillates since 1999. In addition, the world has 75mb of distillate in […]
Top 10 posts in 2009
Blog readers have a wide range of interests. That is clear from the list below of the Top 10 posts in 2009. It also confirms the complexity of the chemical industry, and its fascination. In alphabetical order, it is as follows: • Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble • Companies remain cautious on the outlook • […]
The 2010 Outlook
Extended downturns, of the type that we are now suffering, generally mark a transition period from one set of business conditions to another. I look at what might be in store for us during this transition, in this week’s edition of ICIS Chemical Business. The analysis focuses on the key areas in the chart – […]
Feldstein says US recession “isn’t over”
Harvard’s Prof Martin Feldstein is one of the very few economists who has correctly forecast the length of the current downturn. Today, he questions whether the US recession is really over, and suggests that “2010 is going to be a very weak year“. He believes that we are entering a more frugal economy, and notes […]
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