Europe and the USA are unlikely to handover the EV market to China. And so today’s Car Wars may well led to further tariffs on both sides.
The next few years could well be a bumpy ride for anyone involved in the auto industry and its supply chains.
Chemicals and the Economy
OPEC+ starts to refocus on market share as demand growth weakens
OPEC would have been better advised to keep prices low to reduce non-OPEC supply. Instead, they are likely to face some difficult pricing decisions later in the year, if global growth continues to slow.
China’s housing market moves from boom to bust
China’s housing inventory is now at a record 25 months. Prices/demand continue to fall. And local government land sale income has already fallen 1/3rd since 2021 to $800 billion, with a further 10% fall to expected this year. And so now services are having to be cut.
“Gradually, then Suddenly” – Hemingway’s insight starts to apply to the New Normal’s arrival
As Hemingway noted, everyone is your friend when things are going well. But as countries and individuals are now starting to discover, the hangover when the party ends can be a painful experience.
US Treasury Secretaries change their minds on trade and inflation policies
Policymakers in the West and the East now find themselves adrift in increasingly stormy seas, without a compass. Their 2 key policy tools on trade and inflation have proved to be wrong. New thinking on the role of central banks is urgently required.
Oil and financial markets start to wake up to geopolitical reality
The oil price has rallied 22% over the past 4 months, since it bottomed at $74/bbl. And slowly but surely, traders are being forced to realise that geopolitics are replacing economics as the key driver for world markets.
Rethinking, repositioning and restructuring are now essential for industry survival
Resilience requires companies to refocus downstream and diversify their portfolio. They also need to be clear about the value proposition for their target market – are they providing Value, or Luxury? Rethinking, repositioning and restructuring are now all key to survival and future profit.
Time for a new set of business models as the peace and demographic “dividends” become deficits again
The next few years are therefore likely to be very different from anything that we have known in our working lives. Scenario planning is therefore essential in the face of this uncertainty.
Demographics are destiny: today’s ageing populations creating “replacement economy”
Demographics are taking demand patterns in completely new directions. Sustaining future growth now depends on successfully developing and implementing new policies, focused on the opportunities offered by the emergence of the Perennials 55+ cohort. Demographics are taking demand patterns in completely new directions. Sustaining future growth now depends on successfully developing and implementing new policies, focused on the opportunities offered by the emergence of the Perennials 55+ cohort.
Investors hope (again) for interest rate cuts and a ‘Santa Claus rally’
investors are hoping Fed Chairman Jay Powell will soon signal a dramatic interest rate cut. And so they are positioning for a ‘Santa Claus’ rally. But most adults know that Santa Claus doesn’t really exist.