‘Business as usual’ has been a great strategy for the past 40 years. But nothing lasts forever. It has now – like the central banks’ stimulus policies – hit the inevitable brick wall.
Chemicals and the Economy
Chart of the Year – Our Sentiment Index proved a great guide to the S&P 500 in 2022
Nobody knows how markets will develop. But past performance is the best guide that we have. This is why our Sentiment Index is my Chart of the year for 2022.
Break glass in case of emergency – the 2023 outlook for the economy
Please join me for my free ACS webinar on Thursday, December 15, 2022 @ 2-3pm ET.
China has locked down again. Yet World Cup TV shows people that the rest of the world is back to normal. And the real estate bubble (29% of GDP) continues to burst
The World Cup runs till December 18. That’s a long time for Chinese viewers to ask themselves “Why am I still locked down, when the rest of the world is living a normal life again”? And in the background, the real estate bubble continues to burst.
Global economy set to go ex-growth as world population hits 8bn
Underlying growth has been slowing since 2000 as more people joined the Perennials generation. Now, the bursting of the central bank stimulus bubbles – combined with the impact of Russia’s invasion – will likely cause the global economy to go ex-growth.
‘The chemical industry is screaming “Recession”‘
The chemicals industry is a bellwether for the global economy and its message couldn’t be any clearer:
A severe global recession is imminent.
FAANG stock prices start to tumble as the tech bubble begins to burst
Since January, investors have begun to realise that the FAANG stocks were just as over-valued in December as during the dotcom bubble. Of course, hope springs eternal as we saw this month. History suggests we will see several ‘false dawns’ before the market finally bottoms.
Global housing markets risk major downturn, as interest rates return to more normal levels
Buyers’ confidence has been key to the rise in house prices over the past decade. But that is now disappearing as central banks are forced to refocus on inflation risks, and interest & mortgage rates start to return to more normal levels.
Interest rates break out of their 40-year downtrend – and start creating chaos in global markets
US inflation was last at 8.3% in January 1982. And then, the 10-year yield was 14.6. History may not be a perfect guide, but it is the best we have. So it might be worth planning for rates to go much higher than most “experts” expect, now that they have broken out of their downtrend.
Smartphone sales continue to fall as consumers cut back
Consumers around the world are tightening their purses and cutting back on non-essential purchases, as the recession continues to develop and China’s real estate bubble bursts.